In the crypto market of bull and bear cycles, the difference between 'getting rich' and 'going to zero' is only a fine line. I achieved the leap from 50,000 to 1,000,000 in two years, with the core being the construction of a closed-loop strategy of 'timing the track × position compounding × anti-fragile system', rather than a gambler's bet.
1. Track sniping: Three-dimensional screening of market capitalization - narrative - ecology
Small funds should avoid blind betting and need to establish a dual-track model of 'anchor pool + breakthrough pool':
Anchor pool (60% position): Using BTC (liquidity anchor) and ETH (ecological cornerstone) as the base, adding L2 leaders (such as OP/BASE, capturing expansion dividends), to ensure position resilience;
Breakthrough pool (40% position): Focus on new narrative tracks such as 'modular public chains (SUKU), AI Agent (FET), RealFi (CFG)', selecting early targets through three dimensions: GitHub code submission volume, VC round progress, and ecological partners (like RNDR's layout in the AI rendering track in 2023).
2. Rolling position compounding: Mathematical optimization of position cycles
The core of rolling positions is the quantitative execution of 'cutting losses short, letting profits run':
Position formula: Dynamically adjust single position using the Kelly formula (position = (win rate × odds - loss rate) / odds), ensuring each trade has a positive mathematical expectation;
Cycle management: Set '25% profit-taking + 10% drawdown replenishment' rules, capturing trend markets 4-6 times a year (in bull and bear cycles, altcoins typically complete a narrative hype cycle in 3-5 months);
Compounding calculation: Based on 8 rounds of 25% returns compounded (50,000 × 1.25⁸ ≈ 380,000), plus 5 times the elasticity of breakthrough pool targets (like ARB's early 3x increase), achieving non-linear growth in returns.
3. Empty position defense: The art of waiting driven by quantitative indicators
Empty positions are a more advanced form of trading:
On-chain signals: When Glassnode MVRV > 3.5 (market overbought) and net inflow to exchanges continues (retail investors taking over), mandatory empty positions;
Macro anchoring: Track the Fed's overnight reverse repos (> 2 trillion as a liquidity contraction signal), S&P 500 volatility VIX (> 25 indicates a decline in risk appetite), when both indicators resonate, raise cash reserves to 80%;
Cognitive iteration: Deep research on 'MEV mechanisms, ZK technology implementation, on-chain identity protocols' during bear markets to reserve targets for the next cycle.
Counterattack the bottom: Building an anti-fragile system
The essence of going from 50,000 to 1,000,000 is the product of 'cognitive radius × strategy win rate × execution odds': Establishing cognitive barriers through track research, optimizing strategy win rates with mathematical models, and amplifying execution odds through position management. The key to this system is 'not pursuing single-instance windfalls, but allowing correct trades to happen repeatedly'—when most people are swayed by emotions, you have already traversed the bull and bear cycles with systematic operations.
