Analysts at Bloomberg increased the likelihood of XRP ETF approval to 95% by 2025, citing strong SEC engagement and current CFTC futures.
Bloomberg analysts James Seyfart and Eric Balchunas have raised the odds of approval for most crypto ETFs. XRP is now at the top.
According to the latest forecast, $XRP has a 95% chance of getting ETF approval in 2025. This is a jump from earlier expectations of around 75% or less.
The strong regulatory signal is the reason for the high approval difficulties of analysts.
The main reason for the change is the SEC's increased preoccupation with filings. This level of communication is a clear green light, according to analysts.
The list of assets gaining attention includes Solana, Litecoin, and Cardano. Each of these tokens now has a 90-95% approval forecast.
For $XRP , the filing was on January 30, 2025. Big firms like Grayscale, Bitwise, and Franklin are behind the effort. The SEC accepted the filing, and the deadline for a decision is October 17, 2025.
XRP is currently viewed by regulators as a commodity. This is another strong factor supporting its prospects.
Analysts also noted that XRP already has trading in futures regulated by the CFTC. This reflects the current regulatory framework, which helps ETF applications. Therefore, they are close to the green light for an XRP ETF.
Solana, Litecoin, and a few others are still sitting at 95% approval odds. These assets have multiple backings and initial filings.
Solana's final SEC deadline is October 10, 2025. Like XRP, it is also seen as a potential commodity with CFTC-regulated futures.
XRP ETF is nearing a certainty while SUI, Tron face.
Still, some assets are lagging behind. SUI and Tron are examples with lower approval odds or deadlines beyond 2025. SUI has only a 60% chance of approval, without the current futures market. Tron’s application is not due until 2026.
James Seifert also clarified the timeline in a follow-up post. The approval could come as early as this summer or wait until October or later. He said that it is now a question of when, not if.
The news signals growing institutional interest in a wide range of digital assets. XRP's rise to the top in approval odds is particularly noteworthy.
Once seen as a risky bet because of past legal battles, it now leads the pack. This shift reflects how quickly the regulatory mood has changed.
Approval is not guaranteed. But odds of around 95% are as close as it gets in today's crypto landscape. In an earlier report, The US may also approve a spot XRP ETF after Canada approved three $XRP ETFs.
Nate Geraci added momentum to ETF talks, agreeing that approvals in 2025 are highly likely. In particular,
Geraci believes BlackRock will join the race for Solana and XRP ETFs. According to him, if BlackRock were to step in, it could dramatically increase credibility and momentum. Institutional support like BlackRock could shape the entire ETF rollout phase.