Here’s the latest update from Bloomberg analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas (now on X as @JSeyff & @EricBalchunas):
• They’ve raised approval odds to ≥ 90% for the vast majority of spot crypto ETF filings—including XRP, Solana (SOL), Dogecoin (DOGE), Cardano (ADA), Litecoin (LTC), Polkadot (DOT), Avalanche (AVAX), and others .
• Specifically, XRP, SOL, LTC ETFs now lead with ~95% approval chance, while DOGE, ADA, AVAX, DOT are at 90% .
• Only the SUI ETF lags, with odds around 60%, due to regulatory ambiguity .
• This surge in optimism stems from active SEC engagement—requests for S‑1 amendments, public comment periods—signaling that regulators are taking these filings seriously .
• Meanwhile, market prediction platforms like Polymarket echo this sentiment: ~98% odds for XRP ETF, ~91% for SOL, and ~71% for DOGE .
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🔍 What it means
• This marks a major shift in tone: after the successful launch of spot BTC and ETH ETFs, attention has turned to altcoin-based ETF launches.
• Active SEC engagement is now a positive signal—not a roadblock—for issuers.
• If approvals continue rolling through, we could soon see multiple altcoin spot ETFs launching before October, though timing remains uncertain .
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Let me know if you want a breakdown of any specific ETF (XRP, SOL, DOGE, etc.), a timeline of SEC decisions, or chart comparisons!
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⚠️ Information is for reference only. Always do your own research before investing.
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