Bitcoin Cryptocurrency Market Trend Updates
Check the flow of large BTC holders down 191%, showing the change in whale behavior and weakening market demand
Realized profit falls below $1 billion, matching the bottom line at the end of October 2024
The BTC market has been in a rather fragile state recently. In this context, signals of low realized profits and weak demand gradually create conditions for a more obvious directional move.
At the time of writing, BTC is around $106,000, with realized profit (7DMA) blatantly hovering just below the $1 billion threshold — a level not seen since late October 2024.
Source: CryptoQuant
Despite the recent local peak, however, profit-taking remains quite cautious – This is consistent with the trend of low realized profits.
The market backdrop, then, tells a different story — one of diminishing demand and growing intrinsic losses.
Big House Retreats? Analysis from TinTucBitcoin Reveals…
The cash flow index of large BTC holders reflects a worrying change.
In just the past 7 days, net flows have dropped by 191.44% – a clear sign that the sharks have drastically reduced their hoarding activity.
In April and May, flows were relatively stable. However, June showed a steady decline, suggesting that large players may have withdrawn or distributed more cautiously.
Without these steady inflows, Bitcoin is at risk of further price declines, especially as other sources of demand also weaken.
Source: IntoTheBlock
What do negative funding rate signals reveal?
Derivatives markets are no better. A persistent negative funding rate on dYdX suggests traders are bearish, betting on a weaker long-term recovery.
The Longs' attempts to regain momentum failed quickly. Even temporary moves into positive territory did not last long.
If the funding rate remains negative or fails to stay positive for long, buyers will have a hard time controlling the market. This could leave Bitcoin vulnerable to a sell-off due to lack of confidence from speculators.
Source: Santiment
What impact does the decline in Bitcoin's unrealized value have?
The MVRV Z-score has fallen to 2.47 from a local peak of 2.97 in early June. This could signal that unrealized profits are drying up after the strong rally in late May.
Without large unrealized profits, holders, especially short-term investors, may have less incentive to hold on to their investment signals. Meanwhile, long-term investors still try to hold their positions, creating an unpredictable stalemate.
Source: Santiment
Are on-chain quantitative indicators showing signs of overbought?
Several on-chain quantitative models of Bitcoin are currently flashing warning signals, especially indicators such as NVT and NVM which have surged, up 37.78% and 27.45% respectively. This shows a mismatch between the realized capitalization and network utility.
In previous cycles, these discrepancies have predicted deep corrections or extended sideways moves. At current levels of NVT 45.83 and NVM 3.05, Bitcoin may be overvalued relative to its on-chain performance.
This warns that crowd psychology can have a greater impact on price, rather than relying on organic network growth.
Source: CryptoQuant
Bitcoin’s Stock-to-Flow (S2F) ratio has also dropped 16.66% to 1.060 million, reflecting a decrease in scarcity in the eyes of investors. This ratio has historically supported bullish predictions based on supply shocks following the halving.
Can Weak Demand Sustain Bitcoin's Position?
Despite fragile demand indicators, Bitcoin remains neutral. However, the decline in whale activity, bearish funding rates, and elevated valuation metrics all point to a vulnerable market environment.
If demand continues to weaken, the likelihood of the market breaking the current equilibrium becomes greater — which could lead to a bearish trend or a loss of long-term accumulation momentum.
Source: https://tintucbitcoin.com/vi-the-bitcoin-sup-do-dau-hieu-nhan-biet/
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