$BTC 1. Bearish Dominance Pattern

◦ Bitcoin has continued to decline after failing to break through the resistance level of $106,500. Overall, the technical indicators are weak, with the MACD showing a death cross and the RSI indicating bearish signals. A short-term continuation of oscillation downward is possible.

◦ The 4-hour chart has repeatedly broken below the EMA trend line, and the lower Bollinger Band has been breached. Bearish momentum has not yet exhausted, and further declines to the $100,000 level should be monitored.

2. On-chain and Capital Movements

◦ The number of open contracts has decreased, indicating a market clearing out the chasing longs. Short-term liquidation pressure has eased, but whale addresses have recently withdrawn a large amount of funds (such as 1,303 BTC transferred from Deribit), which may exacerbate liquidity fluctuations.

◦ Long-term holders maintain stable positions, with institutional buying support below $100,000. The long-term fundamentals remain solid (supply tightening post-halving).