Market Analysis~The cryptocurrency market has once again demonstrated a 'manbeng-style' trend over the past 24 hours.
BTC continues to perform Tai Chi above $100,000, drifting between $103.9K–$106.5K, with the latest price at $105.8K, up about 0.8%. ETH is at $2,547, up 0.7%; BNB is at $648, up 0.5%. The total market capitalization is approximately $3.28 trillion, slightly up 0.66% from yesterday. It appears gold has surged above $3,400 per ounce, and oil prices have skyrocketed to around $70 (WTI about $73.5, up over 20% this month, catalyzed by the Middle East conflict)—leading to upheaval in commodities. The three major U.S. stock indices are performing modestly: the Nasdaq has seen a slight increase, the S&P a small gain, and the Dow is fluctuating, with the S&P reaching a new high, while the bear market can only look at the scenery. The fear index VIX hovers around 20, and the dollar index (DXY) has dipped below 98, providing a slight boost to the bulls.
In conclusion, the bull market segments are passing the baton, as the wealthy institutions are still on the way, and retail investors can only watch the show.
International Political and Economic Impact~The situation in the Middle East is escalating.
Israel has bombed Iranian targets for several consecutive days, and the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard has retaliated with rocket attacks (thunder and lightning are not excessive), with casualties on both sides continuously rising. Intelligence circles are rumored to say that U.S. Senator Gaidar proposed mediation but then changed his mind, while Trump is riding the wave to stand by America’s 'backyard nuclear bomb', feigning concern but secretly wanting to divert attention. The global market is busy shouting for safe havens, causing gold prices to rise; political figures are busy bickering, with their verbal battles igniting sparks. This new round of 'Mars colliding with Earth' shows no signs of a ceasefire at least for now, with the red bombs making the market lively.
The Federal Reserve's June FOMC meeting was predictably dovish and stable: the interest rate remains fixed at 4.25%-4.50%, Powell adjusted his wording, removing tense phrases like 'persistent risks', but the hawkish tail is still there—investors are betting on future rate cuts. After the meeting, the dollar continued to weaken, with the dollar index hitting a new low; the market interprets this as the Fed finally 'taking medicine without increasing'. The dovish sounds in the U.S. are rising and inflation signs have slightly eased, prompting everyone to either wait and see or take a gamble.
At the same time, China is vigorously promoting the internationalization of the digital yuan at forums, with the central bank's handsome official Pan Gongsheng boldly stating the need to build a 'multipolar currency system', claiming to reduce dollar hegemony, which has made many dollar holders sweat. European Central Bank officials are also mumbling about gold and euros needing to do more, hinting at a possible push for a digital euro.
In short, major countries around the world are both publicly advocating for the dollar while quietly promoting cryptocurrencies or digital currencies.
Sudden social/safety incidents~Last week there weren't enough bombs, this week it's all about soft power.
On June 18, news broke that Iran's largest crypto exchange Nobitex was hacked, with about $90 million in funds transferred away and claimed to be 'destroyed', leaving behind a picture of Godzilla sleeping as retaliation. The hacker group, calling itself 'predators of sparrows', is known to be linked to Israeli forces, and this maneuver not only wounded the cryptocurrency circle but also sent a message: **'War is a matter of minutes.'** The Iranian officials, far from crying, are instead shouting for retaliation online; it seems the battlefield has not only bombs but also hacker guns.
In Southeast Asia, a $6.15 million Bitcoin fraud case in Chiang Mai, Thailand has been cracked: a Chinese man named Tian scammed two compatriots out of 2 million THB in BTC near Chiang Rai, and the airport police caught him just before boarding. The suspect was captured with the line: 'I've never been arrested before!' The span from yawning to being caught was faster than BTC's flash exchange.
This reminds us: retail investors discussing money abroad can easily face dire consequences.
Institutional Actions~Various big shots are still busy throwing money around.
According to CoinTelegraph data, Bitcoin spot ETFs have seen a net inflow for 8 consecutive days, with a single-day inflow of $388 million this Wednesday, including $279 million from Blackstone IBIT and $104 million from Fidelity FBTC. In contrast, the long-established Grayscale GBTC has been criticized by viewers for continued net outflows. Ethereum ETFs are also not to be outdone, breaking a 19-day inflow record with a total of $19.1 million collected from June 16-18, as institutions ramp up their buying pace. Bitcoin-denominated assets remain a favorite among investors.
Publicly traded companies and sovereign wealth funds are also not idle: statistics show that publicly listed companies now hold over 768,500 bitcoins, with a market value exceeding $8.2 billion, setting a new historical record. Hats off to Musk's shell company and MicroStrategy's old Joe! Additionally, Australia’s IBTC (Monochrome Bitcoin ETF) held 834 BTC as of June 18, equivalent to roughly 134 million AUD, showing strong momentum. Even traditional financial giants are stirring: Nasdaq-listed entertainment company SRM has announced a name change to Tron Inc., investing $100 million to buy TRX, aiming to create an invisible Tron fund, with Sun Yuchen also going to become an advisor; Visa is also testing USDC settlements on Solana, indicating that even traditional finance is quietly laundering money into the cryptocurrency space.
In other words, 'the money is in place, outside spectators please do not approach'.
Project Hotspots~New projects and concepts are emerging endlessly.
The Pump.fun wave has hit Solana, claiming it can create coins and go public in just a few seconds; it even helps you 'shear sheep' automatically—just name the project, design the icon, and hit 'launch' for immediate on-chain trading, with a frenzy of players scrambling for early prices. Pump.fun itself doesn’t create coins but has earned $700 million in fees—cryptocurrency has practically become an amusement park. UST II, the backbone of Terra, hasn't arrived yet, but over the weekend, it was reported that Mamacoins and Believers on Solana are rushing to join the fray, aiming to transform into the next 'national coin creation festival'. Meanwhile, Tron along with USDT is flying high: TRX’s market capitalization has reached $25.75 billion, successfully surpassing Doge to become the 8th largest cryptocurrency, pushing the little dog behind the counter to queue up—blame the U.S. for giving stablecoins the green light.
Established projects are not sitting idle either: the Ethereum duo continues to chase each other, Santiment data shows retail buying interest has fallen to the lowest point since the pandemic (the long-short ratio is 1.03), but during times of extreme pessimism when resentment is almost overflowing, it is often the best moment for institutions to buy the dip. Even the tech giants are planting seeds: Glassnode data shows that on June 12, whales bought 871,000 ETH in one go, institutional accounts holding coins reached a new high for the year; the 'Ethereum era' is beckoning, with funds slowly slipping from BTC to ETH, anticipating the next Altseason.
Don't forget the old joke, the U.S. Congress version of the Bitcoin Reserve Act is still making the rounds in Congress, and domestically there are still discussions about whether to give institutional investors a statutory quota for purchasing coins. It sounds a bit vague, but it indicates a subtle atmosphere in the industry.
In summary: The cryptocurrency market is filled with distracting elements; new projects and ideas are emerging incessantly, while the two steadfast bulls and bears remain glued to their hard drives in contemplation.
Market Summary
In summary, the market is calm on the surface but hides deep mysteries—BTC maintains a strong oscillation in its range, while ETH continues to perform miraculous panic buying, seasoned players are busy taking profits, and new retail investors are just lying back and watching. Geopolitical and regulatory policies alternate, with every piece of news causing cryptocurrency prices to rise and fall dramatically. Institutional funds continue to flow into ETFs and selected coins, with an extremely high holding ratio indicating that 'Old Wang is still Old Wang'; meanwhile, retail sentiment has slipped to the edge of a meltdown, and the next big opportunity might be the next 'anti-human' chance. From the bull-bear battle, the bull market is still pretending to sleep, while the bear market is also trying to act like it doesn't exist, everyone has an excuse to bow out, only the little horse in the cryptocurrency circle continues to chatter away.
Time for a retrospective.
To be fair, this wave of market trends leaves us with 'the tail sweeping the floor': still holding the pipa half-covered—escalating conflicts, soaring gold prices, and BTC fluctuating between $100K and $105K, all are 'minor highs' under the crushing market. But looking back, what are true feelings? The Fed's dovish stance is probing the bottom, the dollar is breaking down, and institutions are wildly buying the dip amidst the chaos; is Ethereum's rise foresight or merely opportunism? Magical things like Pump.fun remind us that just because the seemingly crazy market lacks brains, everyone is laying out their next wave of excitement.
