The first news I see every day: the Fed remains still on the US side, while the gunfire continues in the Middle East. As an old retail investor, I drink coffee and laugh out loud - everyone thinks today is a celebration day for the crypto space, but gold, silver, and oil are much more lively, while crypto prices are dozing off on the side.
🔻📉【Small Steps in the Crypto Space】
Bitcoin continues to fluctuate around the $104–105K range, with only a slight increase of 0.1% in the past 24 hours (with a high of about $105,000 and a low of about $104,000 during the Asian session). Ethereum has dropped below $2,500, currently at about $2,499, down approximately 0.5%; BNB has hovered around $640, down 0.36%. In terms of funds, the BTC over-the-counter ETF continues to attract capital: there was a net inflow of about $388 million on Wednesday, achieving a continuous inflow for 8 days. This aligns with the old routine of 'panic first, then stabilize', although the market was initially panicked, Bitcoin still held the $104K–$105K range. However, the volatility is not small: over $125 million in positions have been liquidated within 24 hours, with more shorts being proven wrong than longs cheering.
All of this tells me that the market is not crazy, but it is also not gentle - it won't experience wild fluctuations, but there will be no wind without waves.
🌏🤝【International Political and Economic Impact】
Gold and oil are the main characters today. Gold prices have basically been range-bound throughout the day: as of the latest data, spot gold slightly fell to $3,365.79/ounce on Thursday's close (down 0.1%), and rebounded to around $3,371.15 on Friday (up 0.1%). The US dollar also strengthened, with the DXY maintaining around 98.9 points, a weekly increase of about 0.8%, reaching a two-month high. In contrast, Bitcoin's performance has been tepid and it has not broken out of its range, which corroborates the views in Ethereum consulting articles: the real safe haven in geopolitical conflicts is gold, while BTC behaves more like a high-risk asset, having dropped nearly 5% over the past week around the $109K mark.
The oil market has celebrated for half a day: Brent crude rose nearly 3% on Thursday to $78.85/barrel, and on Friday it slightly retreated to $77.22 (down about 2% on the day), but overall it still rose about 4% for the week. This surge is undoubtedly related to the escalation of the Israel-Iran conflict. Latest news: Israeli forces bombed nuclear facilities inside Iran, and Iran subsequently launched missiles and drones at Israeli territory (even hitting a hospital). Both sides are not backing down, and the US has indicated that Trump will decide within two weeks whether to intervene, which has significantly heightened global risk aversion.
The result is soaring oil prices, a slight rise in gold, while cryptocurrencies still struggle to rise: the market's gloomy sentiment combined with a strong dollar means Bitcoin cannot dance, only watching safe assets perform.
🚨🏙【Social or Security Events】
Putting market trends aside, the focus remains on the Israel-Iran conflict: Israel claims to have struck Iranian nuclear facilities, and Iran retaliates with missiles and drones, with no signs of de-escalation in the war. Official reports indicate that both sides are declaring they will 'make the other pay', with no ceasefire in sight. This war has directly turned into a disruptor for the capital markets: every bombing acts as a catalyst for rising oil prices, and every retaliation serves as a booster for gold.
The direct feedback to the crypto market is subtle - aside from the smiles of gold and oil prices, Bitcoin and Ethereum have not played the classic safe-haven roles, but rather have been oscillating while being propped up by ETFs, with risk sentiment exacerbating the tug-of-war between bulls and bears.
🏦📈【Institutional Movements】
Bitcoin ETF funds: Investors continue to flow into BTC. Statistics indicate that on June 18, US Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded a net inflow of about $388.3 million, with positive inflows for 8 consecutive days, indicating that institutional players remain enthusiastic about purchasing.
Ethereum whales: On-chain data shows that whale and shark wallets (holding over a thousand coins) have net increased their holdings of Ethereum by 14,900 coins in the past 30 days, now controlling about 27% of the circulating supply; on June 12, there was a single-day surge of 871,000 coins, marking the highest single-day increase of 2025. At the same time, BlockBeats reported that BlackRock bought $750 million of Ethereum in June and has not sold a single coin.
MicroStrategy's movements: the long-established crypto institution is also busy - it purchased 10,100 Bitcoin at an average price of about $104,080, raising its total holdings to 592,100 (accounting for about 2.8% of the circulating supply). The operation of buying coins worth $1 billion has been criticized by some bearish institutions as 'detached from fundamentals', but unless BTC crashes to $15,000, its massive leverage is unlikely to be liquidated.
On-chain/exchange liquidity: Binance's on-chain data shows that Bitcoin exchange reserves continue to decline: the net inflow and outflow over the past six months has decreased by about 400,000 coins, indicating a tightening of long-term supply, but short-term selling pressure may be more intense. Additionally, Bitcoin whales are also adjusting their holdings: Binance experienced a net outflow of 4,500 coins in a single day (the third largest single-day outflow this year), possibly preparing for the upcoming rally. Overall, large funds in the market are competing for the bottom and breakout points.
Liquidation and clearing: In the past 24 hours, about $125 million in contracts have been liquidated, including both long and short positions, with shorts accounting for $72.7 million and longs for $52.65 million, indicating that the short forces during the recent decline have been squeezed out, exacerbating price volatility.
🔥🎉【Project Hotspots or Insider Events】
In the last couple of days, the buzz in the crypto space has been taken over by the 'Binance Alpha' system: the Binance Alpha platform eliminated 23 poorly rated projects in March (like ELIZA, WHALES, etc.);
Recently, there has been a further adjustment in gameplay: starting from June 17, swapping Alpha tokens will no longer earn points (even LP pools won’t count) to combat score inflation, which has sparked heated discussion. Some crypto media criticized this change as being too late and sudden, claiming that thousands of users felt 'betrayed', and about 100,000 users simply exited the Alpha platform.
On the other hand, the Alpha platform is also continuously updating: on June 18, it included the DAO BASE's $BEE in the Alpha project list; on June 19, it launched Matchain ($MAT), and users participating in the airdrop can receive 16 tokens. To align with the system, Binance has quietly reduced the trading fees for Alpha projects like AB, LA, BDXN, TGT, OL from 0.15% to 0.01%.
Aside from Binance, other hot news includes: a service provider for a S&P 30 constituent stock's plan to issue a stablecoin has caught the FDA's attention (the business sector combines with crypto), and crypto celebrities like Quonlish are discussing the future in bars (and incidentally wrote a smart contract to earn some side fees).
There are too many fresh events, here I only pick out the hotspots of Alpha, but there are also many places to be wary of: past lessons often leave scars on retail investors who realize too late.
📉🤯【The market is not crazy, but it is also not gentle】
Ultimately, both capital and sentiment are cautious. The fear and greed index is around 53 (slightly greedy but neutral), indicating that capital is mostly on the sidelines. The bearish sentiment in the market is extremely strong: trader sentiment is at an extreme low of 1.03:1 (the lowest in recent months), which is actually a dovish signal; in other words, the forces of bulls and bears are almost holding their breath. From a technical perspective, Bitcoin's OBV (On-Balance Volume) is still rising, suggesting that large amounts of capital are quietly accumulating at the bottom. Overall, the market is not yet in a frenzy phase, but it is certainly not being gentle with the retail investors: surrounding wars and central bank attitudes are making people uneasy, and a slight relaxation could lead to a big blow to the head.
This state of 'not crazy, but also not gentle' is most suitable for us old retail investors to quietly observe the changes.
