$BTC $ETH $BNB #SwingTradingStrategy #IsraelIranConflict #PowellRemarks #CryptoStocks #GENIUSActPass 1. Current context (6/2025)

  • Israel attacks Iran (6/13): Bitcoin surged to 110,000 USD before a slight decrease

  • Nobitex exchange (Iran) hacked: Lost tens of millions in stablecoins, but Bitcoin maintained relative stability (±3%)

  • Bitcoin ETF acts as a buffer: Institutional cash flow (like BlackRock) absorbs the shock, with ETF trading volume accounting for 55%

2. Lessons from previous conflicts

Russia-Ukraine war (2022)

  • Early stage: Bitcoin rises 20% to 45,000 USD due to concerns over Russian cash flow into crypto

  • Long term: Fed's strong interest rate hikes caused BTC to drop 65%, but crypto became a funding tool for Ukraine (hundreds of millions USD donated)

Israel-Gaza conflict (2023)

  • Unexpected stability: BTC only declines slightly despite escalating tensions

  • Stablecoins rise: USDT transfers increase by 440%, becoming emergency financial infrastructure

  • Reduced sensitivity: Bitcoin in 2025 only fluctuates ±3% when conflicts erupt, compared to ±20% in 2022

  • Clear response mechanism:

    • Oil prices → Inflation → Fed policy

    • Organizational capital (ETF) offsets cash outflows from individuals

4. Future scenarios

  • If the Fed cuts interest rates (forecast 71% by 9/2025): Bitcoin could surge despite ongoing war

  • Main risks: Breakdown of energy supply chains → High inflation → Selling pressure on crypto

Conclusion:
Bitcoin is transitioning from "safe haven asset" to "multi-functional asset":
✓ Cross-border payment medium
✓ Inflation hedge tool
✓ Structured asset in institutional portfolios