Bitcoin's price momentum has stalled, geopolitical tensions are affecting position protection activities.
In recent weeks, the price of Bitcoin [BTC] has impressively maintained above the 100K USD mark, despite escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. What if BTC holds firm in the range of 100K-110K USD before the typically quiet summer trading months? These questions remain unanswered, as the market has many unclear variables.
The current market is unclear about the upward or downward trend. No distinct bulls or bears dominate after the Federal Reserve's (Fed) tactical pause in interest rate hikes. So what are the technical indicators and capital flows signaling? And where is the market likely headed in the near future?
Bitcoin is at low risk, but there is still much uncertainty.
According to analysis from Swissblock and Bitcoin Vector, the overall risk of BTC is currently low. This is a positive signal, allowing analysts to expect the market to maintain its recovery momentum in Q2, from 75K USD to over 100K USD, reinforcing the bulls' position.
Their special risk index shows that BTC has been in a 'low risk' mode since April, consistent with the strong price growth trend in the first quarter. However, experts warn that if this index shifts to a 'high risk' state and the price unexpectedly drops below 100K USD, the decline could happen faster than expected.
"If it closes below 100K USD, the downward momentum could increase. When high-risk signals emerge, that is the time to be cautious."
Meanwhile, analysts point out that BTC's momentum has temporarily stalled and even dipped into negative territory, warning about the potential shift in the bulls' cash flow. Swissblock also emphasizes that if momentum returns strongly, it will be a positive signal for the bullish side.
Source: Swissblock
In the options market, customer sentiment is also clearer, with a cautious trend. According to QCP Capital, risk hedging is aimed at the June and September contracts, indicating that the market is preparing for a potential short-term downtrend.
"The cryptocurrency market is currently in a pause, but internally, risk sentiment is shifting. BTC and ETH call and put options are leaning towards a downtrend, indicating increased hedging activity."
This indicates that, in the short term, negative sentiment is likely to prevail, leading to increasing liquidation activity. Based on CoinGlass's chart, the price levels most likely to be liquidated include 111K USD, 109K USD, 103K USD, and 100K USD.
Among them, prices around 103K USD and 100K USD are currently the largest liquidation thresholds, indicating that the market could 'sweep' liquidity below these levels before potentially bouncing back if market sentiment improves. Notably, below the 100K USD level, liquidity is even lower, which can be considered a short-term support level to monitor.
Source: CoinGlass
Source: https://tintucbitcoin.com/bitcoin-du-doan-gia-100k-usd-co-ben-vung/
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