Talking about Powell, he's just a player who operates on the right side of the market. If the market hasn't broken through or fallen below key levels, he won't easily raise or lower interest rates.

If the U.S. stocks fall for two consecutive weeks, a rate cut that month is basically a given. There's no need to guess how Powell thinks; just watch the market.

Given the current market situation, it can basically be confirmed that there is no hope for a rate cut before September from the Federal Reserve.

Will the U.S. strike Iran? Now that the understanding king has gone to play golf, there's no certainty on this matter.

So what should we mainly look at for emotional reference?

Orders, liquidity, and spot ETFs.

Regarding futures liquidity, after a week of fluctuations, short positions have recently concentrated around the 107,000 range, while long positions have slowly gathered around the 102,000 range.

Based on the current fluctuation situation, regardless of whether the market goes up or down, these two positions are highly likely to be reached, which is also what we are closely monitoring.

Additionally, we need to pay attention to potential triggers for breakthroughs, such as the situation with ETFs from institutions like BlackRock.

There was a small inflow on the 18th, and the market is closed on the 19th. The results are expected to come out next week, whether it continues to inflow or outflow, will determine if this round of consolidation supports a rebound or continues to fall.

From the current long-short ratio, I feel that it is more in line with the operators’ strategy to have a fake drop followed by a rebound.

Moreover, before October, there will definitely be another big market movement.

If not, when wlfi goes live, it might trigger on-chain bloodsucking, and the altcoin market might fall again.