Altcoin Season is not just a fancy term, but an event that every cryptocurrency enthusiast eagerly awaits. AltSeason is essentially the phase when the value of all altcoins other than Bitcoin skyrockets. This event occurs when Bitcoin's dominance decreases and altcoins capture a larger market share. This is the time when large investors, often referred to as whales, shift their money into altcoins.

In 2025, everyone passionate about cryptocurrency is eagerly awaiting the next Altcoin Season. However, Bitcoin's dominance remains above 64%, with no signs of the next altcoin season.

As Bitcoin's price reached a new high of over $110,000 and its market share neared its peak since 2021, both investors and analysts posed the same question: "What happened to the altcoin season?" More importantly, is there a catalyst strong enough to reverse Bitcoin's dominance and bring about the long-awaited altcoin season?

Why is the Altcoin Season 2025 Delayed?

The story of the Altcoin Season begins when altcoins perform better than Bitcoin, and it is a persistent story that has yet to materialize this year. Despite many forecasts, the altcoin boom has not occurred or only lasted for a short time. The explanation is very clear: Bitcoin still attracts the largest capital, especially institutional investors looking for a safe haven amidst economic and geopolitical instability.

Furthermore, according to Burrakesmeci's analysis on June 18 on CryptoQuant, "While Bitcoin hovers around $104,000, altcoins have yet to meet expectations. This is exactly what the 'Accumulated buy/sell quote volume difference over 1 year for altcoins (excluding BTC & ETH)' confirms." He added, "Back in December 2024, this metric turned positive, signaling a local peak for altcoins. Since then? It has been declining."

Burrakesmeci emphasizes that this metric is at -$36 billion, meaning that investors are pulling money out of altcoins. Bitcoin's market share fluctuates around 64% and the asset value has reached a new all-time high. This dominance is supported by several factors:

  • Institutional inflow: Large investors, including hedge funds and publicly traded companies, have doubled their investments in Bitcoin and view it as a stable asset during times of turmoil. Since 2024, the number of publicly traded companies holding Bitcoin has doubled.

  • Spot Bitcoin ETF: The success and approval of the spot Bitcoin ETF have directed more money into BTC, making it difficult to find significant investment in altcoins.

  • Regulatory and structural risks: Altcoins continue to face tightening regulations, smart contract risks, and operational risks, making them less attractive to risk-averse investors.

Meanwhile, the Altcoin Season Index is stuck in low territory and the money flow into altcoins is generally negative: over the past year, investors have withdrawn $36 billion from altcoins more than the amount they invested in them. This risk-averse sentiment has left altcoin investors on the sidelines, waiting for a clear signal to re-enter.

The Only Catalyst That Could Drive the 2025 Altcoin Season

However, although the Altcoin Season is currently at a standstill, experts believe it is not over but merely delayed. The most crucial factor that could ultimately overturn Bitcoin's dominance and trigger an altcoin boom is a change in global liquidity, specifically the U.S. Federal Reserve and other leading central banks reducing interest rates.

Liquidity is the key to cryptocurrency. When central banks lower interest rates or print new money into the financial system, this makes borrowing and investing in riskier assets like altcoins cheaper and easier. In the past, the largest altcoin bull runs occurred after a period of monetary easing, when the market was flooded with cheap money.

Today, the Federal Reserve has maintained interest rates at 4.25% to 4.50% due to ongoing inflation concerns. This restrictive monetary policy has caused the cryptocurrency market to lose the liquidity necessary to drive a broad altcoin rally. According to experts, only when the Fed shifts to reducing interest rates and increasing global liquidity will capital begin to flow out of Bitcoin and into riskier, more profitable altcoins.

Final Thoughts

Although Bitcoin's leading position appears unassailable at this moment, the history of the cryptocurrency market proves that they are cyclical. The capital rotation into altcoins can happen quickly and powerfully as soon as a significant liquidity catalyst is introduced, such as a Fed interest rate cut.

According to some analysts, this change could happen as late as the end of 2025, while others warn that it may take until 2026 for macroeconomic and regulatory conditions to improve. Altcoin investors are currently being held back. However, one expert states that the longer it takes, the more intense the breakthrough will be. When the catalyst appears, the next altcoin season could go down in history.