According to anonymous technician Cantonese Cat, Dogecoin's six-month consolidation is a coil, not a coffin. His June 19 video gathered extensive timeframe evidence to argue that the next breakout direction for this meme coin will be upwards - potentially reaching $4.13 before the current cycle peaks.

Dogecoin's Breakout is Just a Matter of Time

The analyst starts by addressing sentiment. He notes that retail commentary has grown bitter as the price has fallen from last autumn's spike and then "nothing has changed for months." However, such fatigue is precisely what bullish market retracements are supposed to create: "Many people are actually bitter about Doge... that’s exactly how higher peak and higher bottom scenarios are supposed to leave you all feeling frustrated. This is still a bullish trend until proven otherwise."

At the highest zoom level, Dogecoin is tracking what he calls "still a cup and... still a handle until proven otherwise." The first push of that handle stops almost precisely at the Fibonacci retracement level of 0.786 of the 2022–24 downtrend - "a very important fib level here." Because initial attempts rarely break through that resistance level, he anticipates a rejection.

What's important is where the retracement finds support: "In the case of Dogecoin, it has decided to drop to the 0.382 level, which is not unusual... this is actually quite an important area of this beautiful Adam-and-Eve double bottom." Therefore, the market is testing, not violating, a historically strong neckline.

Zooming into the monthly chart, Dogecoin is sitting below what the analyst describes as "a pretty thick Ichimoku cloud." Two breakout attempts have failed, creating a pair of wicks that look concerning for conventional chart watchers.

Cantonese Cat disagrees: "We’ve had a bit of a false breakout here on the monthly chart... I think the third time will be the charm." Below the cloud, six consecutive monthly candles have completely nested within the tall green bar printed last November. He interprets this formation - six inside bars - as a delay forming for a violent move: "You’re talking about a consolidation with six inside candles forming a lot of energy here."

That compression is reflected on the weekly timeframe: “If you also look at the weekly here, you can also see that you have six inside candles here... that tells me there isn’t much bearish energy left. I think we are closer to the bottom than the top.”

The main structural support is provided by the rising 20-month simple moving average, currently at $0.1737. The price is currently dipping below this level, but the slope remains positive. Historically, such combinations resolve favorably for the trend: "If you have a rising 20-month moving average, then it’s very likely this is just a candle wick." He cites a previous cycle when Dogecoin dropped below the same metric before staging a significant reversal.

He argues that price action is meaningless without context. "If I finish watching Doge here on Coinbase and I pull volume here, you can also see that there’s no selling volume here at all." Binance, the deepest Dogecoin market in the world, shows the exact same momentum. "Selling volume is basically non-existent," he says, concluding that excess supply has evaporated and simply having demand can trigger a reversal. Twice before - in July 2023 and February 2024 - the same volume drought occurred before V-shaped rallies: "Low selling volume here, reversal when volume increases... low selling volume here, reversal when volume increases."

Daily chart oscillations are beginning to confirm information about the structure. Dogecoin just recorded what Cantonese Cat calls a "treasure bottom" - his term for a local capitulation with a candle body much smaller than the wick. More officially, the relative strength index has shown bullish divergence: the price has carved lower lows while the RSI has shifted to higher highs. "The last time you had some bullish divergence was right here... that was the local bottom right there," he said, pointing to the reversal in October 2023. This pattern repeats in March 2024 and reappears today: "I think we may soon experience a trend change here."

Price Target $DOGE

If trading volume comes in and the price rises back through the 0.5 and 0.618 retracement levels, Cantonese Cat's Fibonacci scale will mark successive targets. According to Binance's dataset, “$1.60, $2.26, and $4.13 are all possible for Dogecoin.” The aggregated feed from multiple exchanges will adjust those numbers to $1.50, $2.27, and $3.94. What he doesn't anticipate is a repetition of the parabolic rally of 2021, when Dogecoin tagged the 2.272 extension level and briefly suggested a trajectory towards $23. “I think doge $23 is crazy… I don’t think doge will become, you know, anything like a $3 trillion market cap.” However, a market cap from a quarter to half a trillion dollars - a price range of three to four dollars - is still “something to think about” when considering the current monetary expansion.

Cantonese Cat interprets the community's discomfort as a contrary gift: "Market makers are giving us more time to buy while sentiment is extremely, extremely bad." The inside bar ranges act as a simple trigger factor. By his reading, a close above the high of the six-month range will unlock the next step of the main uptrend. Conversely, a close below the 20-month average could delay—but not necessarily invalidate—the argument, as long as the moving average itself continues to rise.

From every perspective—the macro cup and handle, the Adam and Eve neckline test, Ichimoku resistance, 20-month moving average support, volume exhaustion, daily bullish divergence—the weight of evidence converges on a bullish outcome. He acknowledges that timing is unpredictable: "When will that happen? I don’t know." However, there is no data justifying capitulation. He ends with the mantra he repeats three times in the broadcast: "The trend is your friend and the trend is up." If that view holds, Dogecoin's dormant coil could eventually unfold towards the analyst's most ambitious target of $4.13 - a level unimaginable for today's discouraged sellers, and for that reason, he argues it remains within reach.