Despite rising geopolitical tensions and ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty, Bitcoin has remained stable above the psychological barrier of $100,000 for the past five weeks.
The Fed's hawkish stance, stock and bond consolidation, and Bitcoin's strong performance
The Federal Reserve decided on Wednesday to keep interest rates unchanged, but the latest 'dot plot' indicates only one rate cut is expected in 2025, which is more conservative than market expectations. Market analysts believe that this wait-and-see tone may lead stocks and bonds to continue consolidating.
Elliot Johnson, CEO of the newly established Bitcoin asset management firm Bitcoin Treasury Corporation, stated that Bitcoin has continued to demonstrate resilience against the backdrop of rising tensions in the Middle East (the Israel conflict) and the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance. Elliot Johnson believes that the price barrier of $100,000 has now been 'firmly established as a new bottom.' Johnson emphasized:
'The strength of Bitcoin not only represents its flexibility as a safe-haven asset but also highlights its gradual role in countering the devaluation of the dollar and serving as a long-term treasury reserve asset.'
Institutional positioning continues to increase
The purpose of establishing Bitcoin Treasury Corporation is to assist institutions in incorporating Bitcoin into their long-term treasury allocations. Although there were concerns that such companies' leveraged positions could trigger liquidation risks during downturns, many analysts believe that the current market environment is more controllable than past market crashes.
The company led by CEO Michael Saylor of Strategy purchased an additional $1.05 billion worth of Bitcoin last week, which is seen as a clear signal of institutional 'aggressive accumulation.' Nic Puckrin, founder of The Coin Bureau, pointed out:
'The overall market is currently in a wait-and-see mode, with oil prices, gold, S&P 500, and the dollar all consolidating. However, Bitcoin is strengthening against the trend... $100,000 is not just support; it has become a new starting point in the market's mind.'
Waiting for macro liquidity to return
At the same time, Nic Puckrin also pointed out that the potential two rate cuts by the Fed this year, along with macroeconomic positive factors such as Japan's easing of tightening policies next year, are quietly brewing. Once liquidity returns, Bitcoin will be the biggest beneficiary.
In the face of continued institutional buying and an influx of ETF funds, analysts remind retail investors that if they take profits too early, they may end up becoming the 'exit liquidity' for institutions during the 'next wave of upward movement.' According to data, Bitcoin spot ETFs have raised a total of $2.4 billion over the past 8 trading days, with BlackRock (IBIT) and Fidelity (FBTC) showing the most impressive performance, reinforcing the narrative of institutional demand.
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