Bitcoin warning: institutions are aggressively increasing their positions, yet Bitcoin is falling? Altcoins are plummeting; what should retail investors do? Let's follow Sweet Dream to take a look! Institutions are increasing their positions, yet Bitcoin continues to decline? BTC ETF has seen a net inflow for ten consecutive days, yet Bitcoin is falling. This has only happened once before – on May 20, 2024, when the ETF saw a net inflow of 2.4 billion over 11 days, and Bitcoin started to drop from 71,400, beginning a 5-month consolidation. Many fans are asking if this round of market will come to an end?
By analyzing the BTC wallet balances on exchanges and the number of active BTC addresses, it can be seen that Coinbase and Binance have seen a net outflow of 16,000 BTC in the past seven days, with the number of active addresses dropping from a peak of 1.1 million to a low of 700,000. Undoubtedly, in the recent BTC market, institutional companies are buying while individual investors are selling, causing liquidity to hit a bottleneck.
In recent days, Bitcoin has been fluctuating within a narrow range without a clear direction. In the triangular zone, we can only make short trades, with stop losses at the upper and lower bounds to explore a bit more space. Currently, the triangle is nearing its end, and I personally judge that BTC will clear the shorts above 105,500-107,000 and then drop. If it turns directly downwards, the recent low at 103,300, especially the lows at 102,600, should be areas to pay close attention to. If a small-scale spike breaks below with a rapid recovery occurs, we will consider going long in those areas. The strongest support below remains at 100,189; as long as this position is not broken, the market will continue to fluctuate within a range of approximately 10,000 points.
Ethereum has been oscillating around the support level of 2,500-2,450, and at a smaller scale, it is in a downward triangle pattern, indicating short-term pullback needs. Therefore, I plan to wait for a pullback before starting to accumulate long positions, focusing on the support range of 2,490-2,460, which is where I expect to enter long. The key point is whether it can successfully break through 2,540 and then stabilize. If the smaller structure continues to oscillate within a small range, it will be better. In any case, if it breaks through 2,540, 2,617 is likely attainable; the length of the sideways range has already been sufficient.
In the past two years, the total number of various altcoins, including inscriptions, memes, and shitcoins, has almost reached astronomical figures. This is why, in this bull market, those who bet correctly may have made a fortune, while those who bet incorrectly are still trapped in a loss, waiting endlessly for the so-called 'altcoin season.' A structurally differentiated market inevitably leads to structurally differentiated profits and losses.
Even in a bull market, making money in the crypto market is no longer guaranteed for everyone. In other words, the market has become harder to navigate; in today's market, short-selling altcoins has become the norm. How to short-sell?
Short-sell priority should be given to cryptocurrencies with relatively high market caps that are starting to decline in popularity and discussion, or those that are just following trends without fundamental support. Remember to diversify; don't heavily invest in any single asset. Certainly avoid shorting leading and strong cryptocurrencies, as a rebound can easily result in being swept away before you even have time to react.
My own approach is: set a relatively loose stop-loss, but control the position of each coin to be very small, keeping the overall leverage below 0.3x, so even with fluctuations, it won't cause significant damage. Short-selling targets can only be selected by oneself. I have some short positions in altcoins that have made me considerable profits. I closed those positions during the rebound a few days ago, and looking back now, if I had held on, the profits could have been at least doubled. I just checked, for instance, Griffain's price has already dropped to 0.04.
Lastly, here’s a short-selling password:
HYPE HYPE has triggered a long squeeze structure, rising quickly to the 44.05 zone before rapidly retreating. This position is both a key point for inducing longs and a large sell order area. At this moment, the overall trend of HYPE is weak, with continuous overselling proving that bears dominate the market. Two large buy orders are located at 33.105 and 29.993, and short-term bearish or low-risk long opportunities are likely in this vicinity. (For more short-selling coins, please follow for updates)
Today's article ends here. In the upcoming bull market, I will guide everyone to aim for the wealth opportunities in altcoins, with an expected growth potential of more than ten times.
