Today's trend is tangled, leaning bearish, and no clear reversal signals have been observed!
1. Key Position:
Resistance level: 2.0889 - 2.1000 nearby. This was previously a support level that has now turned into resistance, and it is also an area where several moving averages are pressing down. If it wants to rise today, it must break through this level with increased volume! However, it seems a bit difficult right now.
Support level: 1.9413 is the most obvious support point on the chart. Below that is the psychological support at 1.9000. If 1.9413 breaks, the abyss lies below, and it is very likely to seek support at 1.9000.
2. Moving Average System:
The current price is hovering below several major moving averages, indicating that bears have the upper hand in the trend. Think about it, if the average cost line for buying coins has become resistance, it shows that everyone is currently at a loss, and as soon as there’s a rebound, some will want to escape.
3. Trading Volume:
The current volume compared to previous volume is significantly reduced! This indicates that everyone is watching from the sidelines, and the willingness to buy and sell is not strong. This 'shrinking volume consolidation' is like a car in neutral parked on a slope—very dangerous, as a slight breeze can easily cause it to slide down.
4. Indicators:
Although the curve is not directly visible in the chart, combined with your description and its position below the price, indicators like MACD are likely running below the zero axis, and RSI may also be below 50. These indicators have not issued strong rebound signals.
Summary of today's trend outlook:
Short-term view indicates weak fluctuations, risks outweigh opportunities.
Upward rebound? It must break through the strong resistance zone of 2.0889-2.1000 with increased volume; otherwise, it’s all just 'fake signals'.
If it breaks down? If 1.9413 cannot hold, it is very likely to accelerate downward towards 1.9000, continuing to make new lows.
What is the most likely scenario? Without a sudden major positive development, it will continue to shrink and fluctuate in this range or slightly lower, causing discomfort.
Light positions trapped:
Be patient and wait for the rebound to exit. The target is the strong resistance area of 2.0889-2.1000. Keep an eye on it; if the coin price can bounce here and you see significant volume increase, that will be the best opportunity to reduce losses or take small losses and exit.
What to do if it breaks below 1.9413? If the market environment is very poor or RAYSOL collapses, an effective breakdown may lead to 1.9000 or even lower. Those with light positions must be disciplined and consider taking partial or full losses to avoid deeper entrapment.
Heavy positions trapped:
Self-rescue first, reduce risks! If there is a small rebound near resistance, don’t hesitate to reduce some positions! Sell part of it to lower your cost a bit. Don’t think about recovering everything in one go; each rebound is an opportunity to lighten the burden.
Strictly set stop-loss! Set the stop-loss just below 1.9400. If it really breaks below 1.9413 and the momentum is not right, it is better to cut some positions to preserve capital and see how it goes with the remainder. If it breaks without a stop-loss, losses will accumulate very quickly.
Do not easily add to positions! The current trend is unclear, with significant downside risk. Do not add to positions in the midst of a downturn just to lower costs. Adding to positions should only be considered as a strategy when clear signs of stabilization and rebound are seen, and it must be done very cautiously and gradually. Never add just because of a slight dip; the risk of running out of bullets is extremely high.
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