📰 Asia Morning Briefing – June 20, 2025
⚠️ CryptoQuant Warns of Bitcoin Pullback to $92K as Analysts Clash Over Market Direction
🔍 Summary:
Bitcoin’s bullish party might be hitting a speed bump. According to data from CryptoQuant, key on-chain signals are flashing red, suggesting $BTC could drop to $92,000—even after recently peaking near $112K. But not everyone’s hitting the panic button. While some analysts echo the bearish tone, others argue the bull cycle still has gas left in the tank, projecting a continuation to $137K or more.
📉 Bearish Signals (CryptoQuant POV):
Miner Reserve Drain: Miners have offloaded roughly 30,000 BTC since late May, signaling increasing sell pressure from those who typically act as market tops.
Profit-Taking Spree:
Long-term holders (1–2 years) booked over $1.2 billion in profits.
Mid-term holders (6–12 months) took around $904 million.
These kinds of exits often signal a market nearing exhaustion.
Short-Term Holders (STHs) are now in negative territory (aka "underwater"), often a leading indicator for corrective moves.
📈 Bullish Arguments (Cycle + Macro POV):
cycle Still Rolling: Analysts point to the "fractal bull market cycle" that began in Jan 2023, with projections extending to Nov 2025. Historically, this phase tends to be the most explosive.
Target Range: If the pattern holds, BTC could still shoot toward $137K–$150K before a meaningful macro top.
Macro Bulls Stay Firm: Voices like Raoul Pal, Samson Mow, and Michael Saylor remain ultra-bullish, citing increasing institutional demand, ETF inflows, and global fiat debasement narratives.
🔮 What to Watch Next:
Key Levels:
Support: $102K
Resistance: $106K–$110K
Losing $102K cleanly could open the door to that $92K dip.
Holding above $106K? Bull case stays alive and thriving.
Volatility Expected: Summer months tend to bring low volume and fakeouts. Be cautious of chop zones and breakout traps.
🏦 Institutions Keep Scooping BTC:
In a surprise move, Semler Scientific (a med-tech company) announced plans to hold up to 100,000 BTC on its balance sheet by 2027, making it one of the most aggressive corporate adopters after MicroStrategy. This shows broader adoption outside traditional finance circles.
💬 Final Word:
BTC is entering a decision zone. On-chain data warns of a potential cooling off toward $92K, while macro bulls argue the real breakout hasn’t even started. The next few weeks could determine whether this is just a pit stop—or the start of a deeper pullback.