Due to selling pressure and macroeconomic developments keeping the asset in consolidation, Bitcoin's trading price continues to remain below recent historical highs.
As of the time of writing, the BTC price is $104,835, down 2.1% over the past week and approximately 6.3% from last month's peak of $111,814. Despite this overall trend, on-chain data reveals some emerging patterns that may indicate the future direction of the market.
Following the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates at its recent policy meeting, analysts noted that Bitcoin prices and derivatives market activity exhibited different trends.
Derivatives deleveraging and liquidation clusters shape price structure.
According to Amr Taha, a contributor to CryptoQuant's QuickTake platform, BTC has been hovering above the support level of $104,000, with strong demand seemingly absorbing the selling pressure.
However, Taha noted that the number of open contracts on Binance has declined, forming lower lows, indicating that the derivatives market is gradually deleveraging.
Taha's analysis emphasizes the technical divergence: despite the price remaining relatively stable around $104,000, the open interest has been declining. This divergence suggests that traders are reducing leveraged positions, possibly due to market uncertainty or in response to the Federal Reserve's cautious stance.
It is noteworthy that the $104,000 area has become a key liquidity zone, with data showing that long positions in this area have been largely liquidated. Long liquidations dominate, while short liquidations are rare, reflecting that investors who recently attempted to enter during the previous uptrend have been largely removed.
The analyst believes that if the macro environment remains favorable, this deleveraging phase could pave the way for a price rebound. Historically, Bitcoin has responded positively to interest rate pauses, typically resuming its uptrend when signs of weakness appear from sellers.
The stability of open interest, combined with a decrease in liquidation volume, may lay the groundwork for a new round of increases in the short term.
Changes in Bitcoin whale activity and market behavior on Binance.
In another analysis report, another CryptoQuant analyst, Oinonen, highlighted the increasing whale activity on the Binance platform. Since 2023, the whale ratio indicator on this exchange has surged dramatically from 0.08 in mid-2023 to 0.77 in 2025.
This shift marks a 400% increase, indicating significant accumulation behavior among large holders. During market volatility, the inflow and retention of whales typically align with long-term confidence.
Additionally, data shows that during recent periods of increased market volatility, Binance users are more inclined to hold positions rather than close them. Inflows into the platform have remained low, particularly from whales and retail investors, indicating that market participants are not exhibiting panic selling but rather anticipating future price increases.
