#PowellRemarks

Fed Chair Jerome Powell struck a measured yet cautious tone in Washington this week. He signaled that while inflation is subdued, it's about to rebound—driven primarily by tariffs and supply shocks. Rather than rushing into rate cuts, he emphasized a data‑dependent strategy that remains nimble in the face of growing uncertainty .

Powell described the Fed’s economic outlook as the “least unlikely path,” acknowledging an uneven growth backdrop—slower GDP, slight rise in unemployment, and a core inflation estimate nudging above 3 percent . He also affirmed the Fed’s independence against political pressure, particularly from former President Trump, who lobbied for immediate rate cuts and attacked Powell personally .

His message: no easy wins here. The Fed isn’t abandoning its signal of two cuts in 2025, but Powell warned that forecasts lack conviction and remain at risk from global trade dynamics, Middle East tensions, and tariff inflation .