The Critical Point of the Cryptocurrency Market in Geopolitical Fog: Analyzing Current BTC Holding Strategies!
The current cryptocurrency market is trapped in a "volatility trap". The essence of 20x leverage diminishing returns and the rising panic of a waterfall is that the market is undergoing a dual vacuum period of geopolitical and capital games. The uncertainty of U.S. military movements towards Iran constitutes the biggest short-term variable — if the conflict escalates, risk assets may face a final drop; if the situation eases, existing funds will accelerate their return.
From on-chain data observation:
This state of "liquidity freeze" is precisely a typical characteristic before the transition between bull and bear markets. Although we cannot rule out that manipulators might interpret geopolitical panic as a "$100,000 washout script", the mid-term logic is clear:
Duality of policy: U.S. Middle East policy creates volatility in the short term, but in the long term, it reinforces BTC's narrative as "digital gold" due to the depreciation of the dollar's credit.
Chip redistribution: The stock of BTC on exchanges has dropped to 2.5 million (the lowest since 3.12 in 2020), and the selling pressure is nearing its end.
Time window: The Iran issue is expected to clarify before September, at which point the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy and BTC halving expectations will resonate.
Operational suggestions:
Spot investors can gradually increase their positions below $105,000, extending the investment period until the conflict is resolved.
Contract players should control leverage within 5x, being wary of the long and short explosion traps at the $100,000 round number.
Core strategy: Use time to gain space, holding through the "geopolitical - policy" vacuum period, and quietly wait for the November SEC Bitcoin ETF approval window's double impact.
The current market is repeating the script of November 2022 — completing the rebalancing of chips between institutions and retail in the last panic of negative news. Remember: when even 20x leverage fails to make money, it often means that the starting point for a 10x rise is about to arrive.
