Bitcoin price is tracking the 12-week delay behind M2, which has climbed above 114 trillion globally
The current M2 increase began in early 2024 and continues pushing upward, with no slowing seen yet
Bitcoin has now passed 180K, and analysts expect more upside as M2 leads further into late 2025
Global M2 money supply has reached record levels, and Bitcoin's price is once again following the historical 12-week liquidity trend. A new chart shared by macro analyst Vivek shows the black line representing Global M2 ($BN) rising rapidly through 2025. Bitcoin’s price, shown in pink, has historically lagged this expansion by 12 weeks. The chart reveals that as M2 soared past $114 trillion, Bitcoin trailed behind, maintaining a rising pattern above $180,000.
Source: X
This correlation has sparked discussion on whether Bitcoin’s next leg up could follow M2’s latest surge. The data source cited is LSEG Datastream, tracked by Global Macro Investor.
Global M2 Hits Record Highs
According to the chart, the Global M2 measure began a steep upward climb in early 2024. From levels around $102 trillion in January 2024, M2 has increased to over $114 trillion by mid-2025. This trend suggests a massive global liquidity injection, typically associated with fiscal stimulus or central bank balance sheet expansion.
Historically, spikes in M2 have supported risk asset rallies. In past cycles, Bitcoin has shown strong correlation with this trend, albeit on a delay. The 12-week lag pattern presented in this chart has repeated consistently over multiple market phases.
The macro outlook indicates this liquidity wave could continue driving Bitcoin prices higher. While Bitcoin has already crossed the $180,000 mark, M2's continued rise may push its valuation to new highs in the coming months.
The relationship between fiat expansion and crypto valuations has long been debated. However, this chart offers a visual alignment that supports the narrative of macro-driven price moves. Observers now watch for confirmation through continued alignment of these data points.
BTC and M2 Continue to Track in Tandem
Bitcoin’s price behavior over the last two years has often mirrored changes in M2, although delayed. The pink line on the chart illustrates BTC's reactions to previous M2 expansions. Notably, a similar tracking occurred in late 2023 when Bitcoin rebounded from below $105,000.
Current BTC price movements echo this historic structure. Since the recent M2 expansion began, BTC has followed with consolidation then a breakout, now nearing the $200,000 mark. Such movement aligns with previous momentum waves fueled by liquidity increases.
This ongoing tracking provides insight into where BTC could head next. As M2 maintains an upward slope, it offers a strong directional cue. Analysts and traders closely monitor this correlation, given its consistent behavior across multiple cycles.
The data suggests M2’s surge is not yet slowing. If this continues, Bitcoin could push past its current resistance zones in response. The timing window implies late Q3 or early Q4 2025 as key periods for potential moves.
Can Bitcoin Maintain Its Correlation With M2 Expansion?
This leads to a critical question—will Bitcoin continue to follow M2’s lead, or will external shocks disrupt the pattern?
The 12-week delay shown in the data highlights a predictable response mechanism in BTC pricing. Investors now look to M2 growth as a forecasting tool. If that relationship holds, BTC could surge even higher before year-end.
Macro liquidity plays a large role in capital flow decisions. As monetary easing continues globally, alternative stores of value like BTC gain attention. The data also aligns with sentiment that this bull cycle remains active, with no sign yet of exhaustion.
