Morning Thoughts on 6.20
From the current market trend observation, in the four-hour cycle, the price has formed a two consecutive bullish candle pattern achieving a mild rebound, but overall fluctuations are still confined within a narrow range. The long upper shadow extending above the K-line body visually reflects that the bulls are facing strong resistance when attempting to push higher, indicating that selling pressure from the bears remains significant in the short term. Meanwhile, the middle band of the Bollinger Bands continues to maintain a downward trend, which means that the overall market trend has not fundamentally reversed, and the bear-dominated pattern remains solid.
Switching to the one-hour cycle, after three consecutive bullish candles rebound and touch the middle band of the Bollinger Bands, the market quickly faces pressure and falls back. Notably, the three curves of the RSI indicator have all turned downward simultaneously, suggesting that short-term bullish momentum is beginning to wane; the MACD indicator's dual lines also failed to effectively break above the 0 axis, further confirming that the market is still in a weak pattern. Based on the above technical analysis, the morning trading strategy suggests focusing on short positions on highs, while aggressive traders may take a small long position on a rebound to seize the opportunity to layout short positions.
Bitcoin: Short around 105400-105000, targeting 103500
Ethereum: Short around 2550-2530, targeting 2480-2460
