Global M2 money supply is rising sharply, reaching nearly $113T, signaling increased liquidity.
Bitcoin historically lags M2 trends by 12 weeks, suggesting a potential upcoming price surge.
BTC currently trades near $104,822, with resistance at $105,218 and support at $103,832.
Bitcoin may soon witness a notable price shift, as new data indicates a significant uptick in global M2 money supply. Historically, Bitcoin has shown a delayed but strong correlation with movements in global liquidity. A chart published by Global Macro Investor, sourcing data from LSEG Datastream, highlights that the 12-week lead of global M2 in billions of dollars tends to foreshadow trends in Bitcoin’s price.
As the global M2 supply accelerates upward, Bitcoin could be positioning for a similar move in the weeks ahead.The chart reveals that global M2—representing a broad measure of money in circulation including cash, checking, and savings deposits—has been on a sharp rise since late 2024.
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M2 figures have climbed from under $106 trillion to nearly $113 trillion, suggesting a renewed phase of liquidity expansion. This trend follows months of subdued activity and appears to be gaining momentum into mid-2025.
M2 Growth Hints at Bitcoin Upside
The relationship between M2 and Bitcoin, as shown in the chart, indicates a lag of about 12 weeks. Bitcoin’s price movements often follow the liquidity trends reflected in M2 data. As global M2 began rising in early 2023, Bitcoin followed with a sharp uptrend months later. A similar pattern unfolded during the most recent decline and recovery.
Bitcoin currently sells at $104,822, an increase of 0.4% in the last 24 hours. Support is at $103,832 and resistance is at $105,218. Although minor fluctuations have been experienced, Bitcoin has thus far maintained fairly well in the recent weeks within a trading range. The increasing M2, though, could be a wind in the back that can propel the asset higher if history is anything to teach.
Outlook Hinges on Liquidity and Investor Reaction
Analysts remain keen to observe whether Bitcoin will respond to the increase in liquidity in the same manner that it has responded previously. While it is not necessarily as prompt as the correlation may be, the tendency for Bitcoin to track more general monetary conditions renders M2 an educational macroeconomic metric.
The graph also lends support to the contention that Bitcoin is increasingly being influenced by macroeconomic factors and not merely crypto-specific events. If global liquidity keeps expanding, especially in the major economies, then Bitcoin might find it break through its current resistance in the near to medium term.
Overall, the potential increase in worldwide M2 could be a precursor to a subsequent shift in Bitcoin. Although no market relationship can be considered definite, the trend in the past indicates that a bullish period can follow higher liquidity of the digital asset. It is expected that market participants will pay close attention to this indicator because they evaluate the next possible line of Bitcoin movement.
