Bitcoin is not lowering interest rates again, but the dot plot shows that there will still be two rate cuts this year. So, please look forward to the next six months. Bitcoin is currently around 106000, consolidating between 102000 and 110000. I successfully went long twice at 104400, both times taking profit at 105200. The swing traders are ecstatic; they can swing trade every day, and I have been doing it for a month.
BTC
Bitcoin's triangle pattern has broken, pressure at 105800. If it can't recover, just look at the red horizontal line position at the current level! Pay attention to the bottom red trend line in the wedge expansion, provided the triangle area is effective! It should be noted that the 1-hour level has clearly formed multiple bottoms, with a price of 103500. If it stabilizes here, a rebound can be expected.
100900-101500 is highly concerned! Since it hasn't been broken before, it's not advisable to be overly bearish. You can buy low at 101500, but if it can't hold above 106100, don't talk about stopping the decline, let alone strengthening. Here, shorting has the highest cost-performance ratio.
Tianmeng has been doing arbitrage trading every day recently, opening positions backed by support and resistance, with decent odds. If you set stop losses, leave some space to prevent false breakouts. One trade per day; the crypto circle is like an ATM that only withdraws cash and doesn't recharge.
Breaking news: The Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard has issued an evacuation warning to Israel, specifically to the area where the Dimona nuclear power plant is located. Iran will attack Israel's nuclear facilities. Is this going to be a mutual destruction? This could escalate significantly, either forcing Israel to negotiate or truly going all out. The next few days shouldn’t be too quiet; will BTC and MD continue to plummet?
ETH
ETH is still holding strong, oscillating in the same low position. Currently, there is no trend, repeatedly testing the support around 2480. Both bulls and bears are squeezing each other’s space, until a unilateral expansion begins. The current position is almost 50/50 in the short term. Just patiently wait for the direction to emerge.
2540 strong and weak position; below this level is weak. If it recovers, there is a chance to test 2610. 2445/2380 can be used for short-term long rebounds.
Altcoins
BCH is preparing to break its previous high, going against the trend! Those who follow along, give a thumbs up! Tianmeng recommended BCH at 455, which peaked at 489.9 and is about to break 500.
How BCH will move in the future is also uncertain. If you hold a small position in spot, you may really see good returns in the future.
Many fans ask Tianmeng, why aren't altcoins rising?
Answer: The market dynamics of this round of bull market have changed.
This round of bull market has been driven by institutional buying. Everyone has been confident, believing that once institutions buy to a certain extent, the price of Bitcoin will be high enough for funds to overflow into the altcoin pool. However, no one expected that just before reaching this critical point, the market dynamics changed. Funds that couldn't keep up with Bitcoin have shifted their focus and started chasing stock coins. Last night, Circle surged 34%, and Coin skyrocketed 16%, causing the bull market that should have belonged to altcoins to shift to the stock market.
With various micro-strategies emerging like mushrooms after rain, the long-tail capital in the market will soon be fixed, making the native altcoins even more obscure. Now, any promising altcoin is probably connecting with institutions in the traditional market. Early projects that link to stock coins reap the rewards, while those who come late can only sip the soup. Old coins that can't rise in the coin market may ultimately trend towards zero with waves of macro fluctuations.
In short, this round of altcoins is really hard to play, possibly the final liquidation of the previous rounds of altcoin bulls, and then the coin market and stock market begin to enter a new era of stock and coin.
If altcoins can't rise, which altcoins are suitable for shorting?
Let me talk about the logic of going short:
1. Recently, it has increased 5-10 times in the last 2 months
2. Market capitalization is inflated, with pure speculative market capital exceeding several billion.
3. The main force shows signs of unloading, still at a high position
4. Newly launched coins, no applications, continuously declining
On-chain
CAILA: Since being acquired by the Trump family's WIFL project, $B was launched at Alpha starting at 0.0058, all the way up to a maximum of 0.468, an increase of nearly 100 times. Where there is a dragon one, there will be a dragon two. Recently, CAILA distributed an airdrop worth 600U to the top 1000 users by trading volume, which is rare generosity in the project.
With the support of $USD1 and the BSC chain, CAILA is steadily advancing with solid community operations and differentiated narratives. I believe we can look forward to the explosion of the USD1 ecosystem!
Stablecoin narrative: Various USD meme coins on-chain show that the market's hotspot is on stablecoins. It is said that many institutions are starting to look for Paxos to buy one-click stablecoin production services. For ordinary retail investors, participating in stablecoins means buying the leading projects in on-chain infrastructure and RWA sectors, which are the most direct tracks for carrying stablecoins. Don’t buy those projects that seem stable; they are considered wild paths. Regular forces need to first eliminate bandits before entering, and these are the so-called bandits.
