Ethereum ETFs have been seeing inflows recently, so why isn't the price rising???

The inflow of funds into Ethereum ETFs has been ongoing for more than a month, and many people believe that 'ETF inflow = institutions are buying', which is not entirely accurate. ETFs can be purchased by anyone, not just institutions; retail investors, arbitrageurs, and market makers can all participate. Therefore, the inflow data you see may just reflect retail investors buying, with little relation to 'smart money'.

For example, if BlackRock had already bought a large amount of Ethereum at a low price and then concentrated it into the ETF custody address, it might appear on-chain as if 'someone suddenly made a large purchase', but in reality, this was just an accounting maneuver, and the actual buying had been completed earlier. This practice of 'first positioning and then transferring' can easily mislead people into thinking that there are large new entrants, thus causing them to rush in and take over.

True institutions often choose to trade over-the-counter to avoid drawing market attention, quietly building positions. For instance, they might buy on the spot market while simultaneously opening larger short positions in the futures market, creating the illusion that 'institutions are buying', when in fact they are offloading.

Some retail investors are holding many altcoins, and to prevent heavy losses, they short ETH to hedge their risks. However, ETH does not drop as they expected, resulting in a crash in altcoins while they gain nothing from ETH; this kind of 'hedging' ultimately turns into 'doubling losses'.

So to summarize:

1. ETF fund inflows are not necessarily purchases by institutions; retail investors can also create a false appearance of 'net inflow';

2. Real institutions usually build positions quietly and then concentrate transfers, which can easily mislead retail investors;

3. A sudden large inflow does not necessarily indicate current buying; it may be a unified transfer of previously purchased assets;

4. Sometimes, net inflows are actually bait for institutions to do reverse hedging;

5. Using shorting ETH to hedge altcoin risks is often not reliable.

Therefore, it's not surprising that Ethereum is experiencing 'ETF hot money inflows but no price increase'; this is precisely a phase of 'signal confusion'. However, I personally believe that if funds continue to flow in, a qualitative change will eventually arise from quantitative change, and the price of ETH will rise. If there are no price increases with a month's inflow, what about the net inflow over two or three months? So eventually, it will rise; it just requires a little more patience and time. At least currently, the net inflow of ETF funds is a positive signal.