On June 19, 2025, the price of Bitcoin is estimated at around $104,508, marking a slight decline of about 0.6% compared to the previous close. Here’s a comprehensive analysis of the situation:
📉 Current Context
Prices have seen a slight increase of about 0.1% over the past twenty-four hours after touching around $104,584, but remain about 7% lower than their recent all-time highs.
Price support continued above $104,000 despite indecisive trading following the US Federal Reserve's decision to temporarily pause interest rate hikes, contributing to a sense of caution among investors.
🔍 Influencing Factors
1. Federal Reserve Decision
Observers indicate that the Fed has adopted a "hawkish pause" stance, which has put slight pressure on the market, pushing it towards caution and a reluctance to engage in active trading.
2. The State of the US Dollar
The Dollar Index (DXY) is experiencing a decline, which could lead to greater demand for risk assets like Bitcoin, especially if the decline continues due to fears of an economic slowdown or tariff policies.
3. Geopolitical Risks
Despite rising tensions between Iran and Israel, Bitcoin did not benefit as expected as a safe haven, reflecting volatility in its investment behavior during crises.
🚀 Short and Medium-term Predictions
Technical analysis from Polymarket shows that the probability of reaching $110,000 by 2025 is 61%, but it faces strong resistance levels at $110–115k. Meanwhile, its chances of reaching $150–200k are down to 29% and 14%, respectively.
Institutional analysts like Clyde & Bahamas and Bernstein are betting on levels of $150–200k by the end of 2025 due to a flow of institutional funds and increased regulatory adoption, especially after Federal Reserve projects and the Trump scenario.
🔄 Awareness of Upcoming Movements
The US Federal Reserve may reduce interest rates sometime in June 2025, which could boost momentum for Bitcoin if it happens.
The technical resistance is at ~$110–115k, and breaking it could set a course towards $120k or beyond.
Global sentiment is shaken by the repercussions of geopolitical conflicts and changes in US-China policies.
✅ Summary
In the short term (weeks): Bitcoin appears to be in a slight correction phase or stabilizing around the $104–105k area; supported by a weak dollar and the Fed's hesitation, with a chance to break resistance at $110k.
In the medium term and policy: predictions remain optimistic — if interest rates are cut, a strong upward wave is possible, perhaps towards $120-150k, with optimistic forecasts reaching $200k by the end of the year, provided institutional and regulatory support continues.
Attention should be paid to: Dollar movements, interest rate decisions, and developments in geopolitical conflicts.
