#PowellRemarks

🗣️ Key Points

The interest rate remains unchanged, with the federal interest rate staying at 4.2#PowellRemarks 5–4.50%.

The outlook remains "cloudy" – Powell emphasized the uncertainty regarding the future, warning against heavily relying on his published forecasts.

Two rate cuts are expected for the current year, but Powell clarified that any reduction will be data-dependent, expressing "little conviction" about the timing.

Tariffs are pressuring inflation – He noted that increasing trade barriers could raise costs and slow growth, but the central bank will not intervene until the effects of these tariffs become clear.

Warning about data quality – Powell warned that deep cuts in agencies like the Bureau of Labor Statistics could undermine key economic signals, which might affect decision-making at the bank and for the public.

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🔍 What does this mean?

1. Stability, no sudden moves – No change in interest rates is expected until clearer data becomes available (likely not before September).

2. Close monitoring of inflation – Tariffs may delay the decline in inflation, reducing the chances of a quick rate cut.

3. Healthy labor market – A low unemployment rate supports a balanced approach to policies.

4. Importance of public data – Powell's warning emphasizes the need for reliable economic data for federal policies and for the public as well.