At the end of the quiet cycle in mid-June, veteran market technician Tony 'The Bull' Severino, CMT, posted a monthly Dogecoin (DOGE) chart indicating that the excited barks of this meme coin may be gradually turning into weary whimpers.
The 1-month candlestick chart, published on TradingView at 22:43 UTC+2 on June 17, 2025, fixed DOGE at $0.1694 — down about 2.3% in the session — and placed three distinct black arrows where previous macro momentum peaked, rolled, and ultimately bled into a prolonged downtrend.
Is Dogecoin just pretending to die?
On the price chart, the first arrow is at the peak of January 2018, when DOGE briefly tagged the two-cent area before giving up almost all of its gains. The second arrow marks the excitement spike in May 2021, when the token surged to just under seventy cents and then began to decline over the next two years. The third arrow lands on the most recent lower monthly peak that topped just below $0.26 last month and has since slid below the psychological twenty-cent threshold.
Below the candles, Severino overlaps his preferred long-term MACD (labeled as 'LMACD') with the default frequency chart. The indicator — blue for the fast line, orange for the signal line — records an almost rhythmic cadence: positive crossovers slope during parabolic uptrends, followed by equally strong bearish reversals when buyers exhaust themselves.
The highest green bars of the frequency chart at the beginning of 2017 and early 2021 coincide with those price surges; in each case, as the frequency chart faded to neutral and turned red, DOGE entered a prolonged bear market.
Today, that pattern seems to be repeating. The blue LMACD line has just crossed below the orange signal line, printing a slightly negative histogram value of -0.0263 while the signal is at 0.1704 and the LMACD itself at 0.1440. The configuration reflects the early stages of the 2018 and 2022 downturns, two previous reversal points that Severino highlights with his arrows. In his own words, the monthly oscillator 'seems to want to reverse and die,' implying that the crossover could signal a deeper retracement to historical support zones.
From a structural perspective, DOGE is currently stuck between the bottom of the previous cycle near the two-cent mark and the resistance above at the peak of the last oscillation around $0.48. Weakened momentum on the LMACD suggests that sellers still hold the upper hand unless new demand emerges quickly enough to negate the bearish crossover that is beginning. A decisive close below April's low near $0.13 would open the chart to a vacuum zone, as low as the cycle bottom at $0.0491.
Severino's analysis, while technically rigorous, comes at a time when cryptocurrency liquidity is generally dwindling ahead of a gloomy summer and as risk appetite shows signs of weakening across digital assets due to deferred expectations of the next interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve and geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran.
For long-term traders following more meme momentum, the monthly crossover is more valuable than any viral tweet. History does not repeat exactly, but for Dogecoin holders, it has rhymed with concerning accuracy each time the LMACD bends from a high peak.
Whether this dog-themed coin truly curls up for a longer sleep or just halts before another tail-wagging speculation will depend on how the price reacts if the histogram chart turns more negative in the coming months. Currently, the chart's message is unclear: Dogecoin's dominant trend has lost its rhythm, and trend-following traders may want to pay attention to the dog's breath before assuming it's just playing.