The price remains within an upward channel since early April. The recent pullback formed a resonant bottom at the mid-channel and the key support zone of 137-140. Subsequently, the price experienced a strong rebound, quickly rising above the internal trend line, indicating that buyers are still dominant.

The Federal Reserve maintains the benchmark interest rate unchanged but keeps a hawkish stance, emphasizing that recent inflation expectations remain high, with tariffs posing a major upside risk. Officials reiterated a wait-and-see approach, awaiting a clearer inflation path. Despite views that a weak labor market would prompt a policy shift, the U.S. economy remains strong, with robust employment and consumption data. The crude oil market has shown a muted reaction to geopolitical news; despite ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions, oil prices have remained within a narrow range, and implied volatility has decreased from high levels. The Trump administration has an incentive to push for an agreement with Iran before the election to avoid rising oil prices that could elevate inflation and interest rates. Global trade tensions are intensifying, with the EU's tariff suspension period ending on July 9, and the U.S. reaching an agreement with only 1 of 195 potential trading partners. Key dates include: July 14, when the EU may impose retaliatory tariffs on the U.S.; August 12, when the U.S.-China tariff suspension period ends; and August 31, when the exemption on Chinese goods tariffs expires. These events could trigger market volatility, but U.S.-China trade negotiations are still expected to yield stable outcomes. The cryptocurrency market has entered a seasonal slump, with BTC's short-term implied volatility dropping below 40%, and bearish option premiums reflecting cautious market sentiment. The end-of-month option expirations, rebalancing fund flows, and systemic deleveraging dominate recent price trends. #以色列伊朗冲突 $BTC $ETH $BNB