BTC has been slowly grinding down from the top of its range amid macro tension (Iran/Israel situation), but here’s the kicker — it *still hasn’t broken down*. That resilience tells us something… but don’t let it fool you. Momentum on low-to-mid timeframes? Still pointing south.
Base case: we get low volatility over the next few days. Calm before the storm. Then — bang — a shakeout move. Weekend or early next week is prime time for some fireworks.
First key level to watch: the 55 daily EMA around 102.6k. Could get a bounce there, but don’t count on it holding. I’m still eyeing 97–99k as the true buy zone — right where the monthly 5EMA sits. That area’s been my target since the start of the month, and nothing’s changed.
Not diving into shorts *yet*. Market feels like it's due for a bounce or some choppy sideways action. I’m staying conservative, letting the trades come to me. I’ll be on the lookout for clean short setups soon.
To be clear — BTC under 102k (especially near 97k) and ETH below \$2500 are screaming long-term opportunities. But in the short term, a panic flush still looks likely before any major push higher.
ETH is holding its ground at \$2460 — barely. Volatility is low, but if we get a daily close below that level, the door opens to \$2300. I’m comfy holding spot ETH long term, but I’m not blind to what the chart’s showing right now.
As for alts — not a lot to love out there. Most charts are either weak or uninspiring.
\$HYPE looks like it topped for now. Could see a bounce, but I’m expecting a move toward \$35 later this month.
\$BERA? Classic fade candidate. Every time it tries to reclaim an old support, it gets rejected and nuked. Still my favorite long-term short. Also keeping tabs on \$FART and meme coins — but waiting for either a bounce into resistance or a clean break before getting involved.
Stay sharp. Let the setups come to you. This is a sniper’s market — not a spray-and-pray game.
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