In recent weeks, the altcoin market in general, including the largest memecoin Dogecoin, has faced downward pressure. This downward pressure has brought the entire cryptocurrency market down to $3.25 trillion as of June 19th, reflecting a decrease of 0.66%. The price of Dogecoin alone has dropped over 25% in the past four weeks, trading around $0.167 at the time of writing. With a fully diluted market cap of nearly $25 billion since the beginning of the year, Dogecoin, like the rest of the altcoin market, finds itself stuck in a downtrend.

Key Factors Influencing Dogecoin's Medium-Term Outlook

Dogecoin, protected by a proof-of-work (PoW) consensus mechanism, has attracted more institutional investors over the past year. In the United States, several fund managers have filed applications with the SEC for approval of a spot Dogecoin ETF, which is awaiting a decision.

Market participants on Polymarket estimate the likelihood of the SEC approving a spot Dogecoin ETF before the end of the year at 67%. This development is seen as a potentially significant factor that could support Dogecoin in the medium term.

Short-term Expectations for Dogecoin Price

Since the beginning of 2024, the price of Dogecoin has moved within an overall bullish channel characterized by higher highs and higher lows. However, the largest memecoin remains entrenched in a significant downtrend since the beginning of the year.

Dogecoin Price Analysis

On the weekly timeframe, the price of DOGE seems to be attempting to retest last year's ascending logarithmic trendline. After a recent encounter with strong resistance at around $0.25 and the subsequent pullback, the memecoin faces a potential decline of 30% to its support level at around $0.11.

This short-term bearish scenario is further supported by the weekly MACD indicator's signal line pointing downward and increasing bearish histogram bars. However, the current short-term downward pressure on DOGE's price could be invalidated if the memecoin consistently breaks above the descending logarithmic trendline established since the beginning of the year.