The market is stuck in a low volatility quagmire! QCP Capital warns: Three trade war nodes are laying mines
When traders are being boiled like frogs in warm water, the real storm is on the way
On June 19, QCP Capital issued a heavy warning: Under the appearance of the current market being unusually calm, three trade war time bombs are counting down to explode! The Federal Reserve is on the sidelines, but quietly wrote "tariff risk" into the hawkish statement. What's even more bizarre is that even the Iran-Israel conflict has become the background sound of the market-the panic index is lying flatter than the zero coin, and this numbness is precisely the precursor to a change in the market.
The fatal countdown clock has begun counting down:
July 14th, the EU's retaliatory tariff hammer fell. August 12th, the 90-day truce agreement between China and the United States expired. August 31st, the tariff exemption for Chinese goods ended.
These nodes may trigger a cliff dive in risky assets. But the QCP baseline scenario is still optimistic: the interests of both sides are intertwined, and trade negotiations are more likely to end smoothly.
The bloody reality is: institutions are already wearing bulletproof vests!
The market risk reversal indicator continues to be negative (put options are more expensive than calls), exposing that big investors are betting on a short-term plunge. Retail investors are still chasing altcoins with high leverage, as if August is just a holiday season.
My defense strategy was upgraded overnight:
Limit high-risk assets before July, especially chip chains, mining machine stocks and other trade war bullseyes; Gold + US debt tokens (such as ONDO) positions are increased to 30%, and hard assets are the Noah's Ark during geopolitical turmoil; Reserve 20% bullets-if the black swan really triggers a plunge, decisively buy Bitcoin at the bottom, history proves that crisis = BTC discount season!
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