๐ฅ ๐ฃ๐ผ๐น๐๐บ๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ธ๐ฒ๐ ๐ง๐ฟ๐ฎ๐ฑ๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ ๐ฆ๐ฒ๐ฒ ๐จ๐ฆโ๐๐ฟ๐ฎ๐ป ๐๐ผ๐ป๐ณ๐น๐ถ๐ฐ๐ ๐ฅ๐ถ๐๐ถ๐ป๐ด ๐๐ฎ๐๐
Tensions are rising in the Middle East โ and prediction markets like Polymarket are flashing red alerts about a possible conflict between the U.S. and Iran.
๐งจ On June 18, social media buzzed with warnings of a โhuge historic event.โ That same day, the IAEA confirmed Iran has over 400kg of weapons-grade uranium, raising fears of nuclear retaliation.
๐ Traders briefly raised the chance of Iran using nuclear weapons in 2025 to 20%, but that dropped to 13% after news of possible diplomatic talks.
๐ Key Polymarket predictions:
42% chance U.S. and Iran resume nuclear talks before July
49% chance of a new deal by end of 2025
32% chance Iran stops enriching uranium before August
21% chance Iran blocks the vital Strait of Hormuz by July
61% chance U.S. strikes Iranโs Fordow nuclear site before July
61% chance Iranโs Supreme Leader Khamenei resigns this year
42% chance the Iranian regime is overthrown by 2025
๐ข๏ธ Iranโs former economic minister also warned no oil tankers would pass through the Strait of Hormuz for 100 days without Iranโs approval โ hinting at potential energy disruptions.
๐ฃ Reports say the U.S. is considering a military strike on Iranโs Fordow nuclear site, and Trump has issued strong warnings to Iranโs leadership. Meanwhile, Khamenei has not appeared publicly for days and is reportedly preparing to transfer power โ a rare and serious move.
โ๏ธ Overall, Polymarket traders believe the chance of direct U.S.โIran military conflict is growing, especially around nuclear sites. While a full war isnโt certain, the risks of escalation are now very real.
