AVAX

📉 $AVAX at a Crucial Technical Crossroads Despite On-Chain Surge

Avalanche (AVAX) is facing a pivotal moment on the charts — while on-chain activity is booming, the price action tells a more cautious story.

After bottoming out in mid-March, AVAX staged a recovery with a double-bottom reversal, moving into an ascending channel supported by a rising RSI. This suggested bullish momentum through late March.

However, the trend has since weakened. Price action is now forming a descending triangle, with AVAX hovering just above key horizontal support (~$17.80–$18.50). Adding to the bearish signals, AVAX recently broke below the ascending channel's lower boundary — hinting at a possible shift from bullish consolidation to renewed selling pressure.

This confluence zone — where horizontal support, triangle support, and the broken channel boundary meet — is now a make-or-break level. A clean breakdown from here could trigger a move toward the $15.00 mark.

📊 Interestingly, this bearish technical setup comes despite Avalanche’s strong on-chain activity. Daily transactions have surged past 1 million (7-day average) — the highest in over a year — largely fueled by arena.trade, a platform that mints ERC-404-style tokens from X posts via bonding curves.

🔍 Still, the rise in transaction volume hasn’t been matched by an increase in active addresses — suggesting that a small number of users are generating most of the activity.

⚠️ With RSI approaching oversold and price sitting on multi-level support, the next few daily candles will be critical in deciding whether AVAX rebounds or breaks down further.