Summer Stasis: Markets Tread Water Amid Fed, Tariffs, and Crypto Quiet š
The US Federal Reserve held interest rates steady, maintaining a hawkish outlook due to sticky inflation concerns, particularly tied to tariffs. Despite talk of a cooling labor market, the US economy remains solid, driven by steady job growth and strong consumer spending. Geopolitical tensions, like those between Israel and Iran, are losing market impact, with oil prices stabilizing as Trump pushes for an Iran nuclear deal to curb inflation. Trade tensions are heating up with looming tariff deadlines for the EU (July 14) and China (August 12 and 31), which could spark volatility in risk assets. Still, a stable US-China trade resolution seems likely, supporting market rallies. Crypto markets are in a seasonal slump, with low volatility and cautious positioning as Bitcoin implied vols drop below 40%.
The market feels like itās in a holding patternāeveryoneās watching the Fed and those tariff deadlines. The economyās strength is a good sign, but Iām skeptical about how smoothly trade talks will go; those deadlines could stir things up. The crypto lull is classic summer behavior, nothing to sweat about. Overall, itās a wait-and-see game, with more upside potential than downside risk if trade deals land softly.
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