Cryptocurrency Asset Resilience Amidst Geopolitical Turmoil — Senior Analyst Anna Interprets the Bitcoin Game During Conflict Cycles: 'As the shadow of the B-2 bomber sweeps over the Persian Gulf, Bitcoin's candlestick chart is inscribing footnotes for the world's power transition.'

1. Geopolitical Black Swans: The Iran Nuclear Crisis and the Price 'Stress Response'

1. The Short-Term Price Manipulation of the Trump-Iran Game ◦ On June 17, after Trump signaled 'Iran is willing to negotiate', Bitcoin quickly surged to $109,000, but after Iran dismissed the 'lie', it plummeted 8% within 2 hours, evaporating $390 million in leveraged funds. This confirms that geopolitical news has become a short-term manipulation tool for high-frequency traders, and market sentiment is being hijacked by political rhetoric.

The anomaly lies in: Despite the extreme price fluctuations, there has been a continuous net outflow of BTC from exchanges (for example, Binance hasn't seen significant selling pressure), and the number of on-chain wallets holding more than 1 BTC has increased by 15%, indicating that smart money is buying the dip, viewing panic as an opportunity.

2. Fordo Nuclear Facility: The Fuse of the Middle East Powder Keg ◦ Why does Israel seek the U.S. so desperately? The Fordo nuclear facility is buried 90 meters underground, with concrete layers several meters thick. The Israeli military's current drilling bombs can only penetrate 6 meters, while the U.S. military's GBU-57 'Bunker Buster' can penetrate 60 meters.

If the U.S. conducts airstrikes this weekend, it will trigger triple risks:

■ Escalation of Conflict: Iran may blockade the Strait of Hormuz (20% of the world's oil passage), and if oil prices soar to $150 per barrel, global inflation will restart, suppressing risk assets;

■ Russian Involvement: The Russia-Iran 'Natural Gas Alliance' may upgrade to military cooperation, and the deployment of the S-400 air defense system may prolong the war;

■ Crypto Market Flash Crash Contingency Plan: Referencing the historical 12% single-day drop in BTC during the Iranian missile attack on Israel in April 2024, if the U.S. and Iran engage in direct conflict, short-term declines may reach 15-20%.

2. Policy Shackles: The Fed's 'Hawkish Pause' Signals

1. The bearish implications of delayed interest rate cuts have been partially priced in ◦ The Fed refused to cut rates in June, mainly due to Trump's tariff policy raising import costs, and core inflation remains stubborn. However, a neutral-to-dovish signal (the dot plot suggests two rate cuts within the year) has prevented panic in the market, keeping BTC at the psychological barrier of $100,000.

Historical Reference: In the early stages of the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022, BTC fell by 12%, but recovered its losses 4-6 weeks later. The current atmosphere of 'bad news is fully priced in' is similar; if July CPI declines, expectations for interest rate cuts will reignite and become a catalyst for upward movement.

2. Institutional Layout Against the Tide Under Regulatory Flood ◦ The GENIUS Act, which requires 100% reserves for stablecoins, effectively drives out small and medium issuers; Tether may become the biggest winner.

However, traditional financial giants are seizing the opportunity to enter the market:

■ DDC Enterprise, a publicly listed company on the NYSE, completed a $528 million special financing for Bitcoin, with a holding profit of $7 billion;

■ BlackRock ETF has seen a net inflow for 7 consecutive days (averaging $300-500 million per day), even amid geopolitical turmoil, proving that institutions view BTC as a long-term inflation hedge.

3. Capital Game: Market Anomalies Reveal Intentions of Major Players

Anna's Viewpoint: The current divergence between 'panic volatility' and 'capital resilience' resembles BTC's movement during the March 2023 banking crisis — a surface crash, but in reality, undercurrents are preparing for a counterattack.

4. Survival Strategy: The Offensive and Defensive Tactics of High Volatility Cycles

Position Structure Recommendations

Core Position (70%): Firmly hold BTC, history has proven its recovery power far exceeds that of stock indices in the later stages of geopolitical conflicts;

Hedging Position (20%): Allocate gold tokens (PAXG) or energy stock ETFs to hedge against the risk of soaring oil prices;

Mobile Position (10%): Reserve USDT to capture panic lows (if BTC falls below 103,000, it can be gradually entered).

Key Observation Anchors

48-Hour Military Red Line: If the U.S. military strikes Fordo, be wary of BTC crashing to the $95,000-$100,000 range;

July CPI Data: If inflation falls below 3%, expectations for interest rate cuts will trigger a new round of increases;

Iran's Mining Trends: If Iran's national mining pool increases BTC sales for currency exchange, it may exacerbate short-term selling pressure.

“Gunfire can only temporarily distort prices, but cannot destroy the underlying logic of Bitcoin's growth — when fiat currency depreciates amidst the smoke of war, the currency Babel constructed in code rises from the ground.”

I am Anna. Follow me as I guide you through the fog of the battlefield and lock in the dividends of rebuilding blockchain civilization. When the last drilling bomb falls, will you search for gold in the ruins, or will you rebuild Babel in the code?