#PowellRemarks

What Powell said (according to official data):

The Federal Reserve decided to maintain interest rates at 4.25–4.50% to preserve flexibility and control inflation.

He mentioned that the economy enjoys relative strength: the labor market is strong, unemployment is at 4.2%, and economic growth is stable (around 2.5% in 2024, reduced to 1.4% in 2025).

He pointed out that inflation remains above the target (2%), with the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index around 2.3% (2.6% excluding food and energy), amidst expectations of rising to 3% by the end of 2025.

He confirmed, "We need to see more data" before making any decisions about future adjustments; noting the uncertainty of the impact of tariffs.

He warned that one outcome of the tariffs may appear on consumers, leading him to caution that "someone has to bear the cost."

He expressed interest in the potential conflict between two goals: controlling inflation and maintaining a strong labor market, and that policy will balance depending on how close the goals are to being achieved.

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📊 Immediate effects on the markets:

Treasury yields rose slightly after the conference due to Powell's warnings of rising inflation.

The market still leans towards optimism regarding the possibility of interest rate cuts, but Powell's cautious words about it leave investors hesitant.

Inflation expectations for the remainder of the year have increased, with growth expectations for 2025 reduced to 1.4% and inflation expectations raised to ~3%.