📊 Exchange rate dynamics
As of June 19, the exchange rate is 1 USD = ≈ 78.5₽.
A year ago, on January 1, 2025, the exchange rate reached 113.7₽, then gradually strengthened to ~76.9₽ by the end of May.
Volatility over the past months — about ±12% (from 77 to 87₽).
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🧭 Factors strengthening the ruble
1. High key interest rates of the Central Bank (20%, with a prospect of reducing to 17%) increase demand for ruble assets and limit demand for dollars.
2. Limited demand for currency — due to sanctions, fewer operations on Forex, and large oil/gas exports formally support the ruble.
3. Global trend of dollar weakening & carry trade — the ruble is among the leaders in strengthening (growth of ~38% in 2025).
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⚠️ Restraining factors
Overvaluation of the ruble: Sberbank estimates the "real" fair exchange rate at 90–95₽ per dollar, while the government believes that a level of 100₽ would be convenient for the budget.
Dependence on oil: falling prices may lead to a weakening of the ruble and deterioration of the budget.
Decline in economic growth rates and risk of recession: the key rate remains high — this restrains investments and may increase pressure on the ruble with further rate cuts.
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📅 Exchange rate forecasts
By mid-2025, experts expect the exchange rate to return to ~95–100₽, especially by September–December.
ExchangeRates.org.uk predicts about 87.6₽ by September 2025.
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🧾 Results and recommendations
📈 USD/RUB exchange rate ≈ 79.8. But experts consider it overvalued.
📉 Devaluation risk Moderate, possible up to 95–100₽. Especially with falling oil prices or rate cuts.
💵 Budget and export Win from the weakening of the ruble. The government allows for 100₽.
Recommendations:
For importers: the current ruble is expensive — it is advantageous to buy currency in advance or hedge.
For exporters: moderate weakening of the ruble may increase revenues.
Monitoring oil dynamics and Central Bank decisions is key drivers of the exchange rate.
