According to DeepFlow TechFlow news, on June 19, HTX DeepThink columnist and HTX Research researcher Chloe (@ChloeTalk1) pointed out that as global macro and geopolitical risks intensify, the cryptocurrency market is entering a critical window for potential severe volatility. According to various sources, the U.S. may launch strikes against Iran's nuclear facilities and core military capabilities, aimed at disrupting its nuclear program and weakening regional deterrence. If carried out, it would mark a shift in U.S.-Iran relations from long-standing proxy conflicts to direct military confrontation. Iran, as a strategic pivot among 'non-Arab countries' in the Middle East, plays a unique role in balancing the Arab alliance. Whether this strike extends to regime change will become an important variable in determining the depth and persistence of the conflict, and will also influence regional capital flows and global risk aversion sentiment.
In addition, during the FOMC meeting that concluded early today, the Federal Reserve announced that it would maintain the current interest rate level, which aligns with market expectations. However, the updated dot plot released a clear hawkish signal: although a rate cut of 50 basis points is still expected in 2025, the rate cut path for 2026 and beyond has been significantly downgraded, indicating a more cautious assessment by the Federal Reserve regarding medium-term inflation pressures. Among the 19 committee members, only 10 expect at least two rate cuts within the year, a decrease from March, while 2 expect only one cut, and the number of members expecting no rate cuts this year has risen from 4 to 7. This widening divergence reflects increasing uncertainty within the Federal Reserve regarding economic outlook, inflation trajectory, and policy tolerance.
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