June 19, 2025

Yesterday I had a slight fever, so I didn't update. It turned out to be a viral infection again. Since the pandemic, it seems that various viruses have been increasing. Going out without precautions makes it easy to get infected, especially when hearing about some children; kindergartens are basically little virus nests, which is quite tough. In addition to health, I suggest everyone engage in more outdoor activities, whether aerobic or anaerobic. Having a healthy body is essential for making money and enjoying life better.

Recently, a hot topic is the conflict between Israel and Iran, which, according to reports, is under the instigation of the Americans to carry out targeted strikes on Iran's nuclear infrastructure, along with a 'decapitation operation.' In my view, since the Americans are involved, the likelihood of this conflict evolving into a larger war is smaller. What I fear is that Israel, for its own nationalistic goals, continues to carry out occupation actions against neighboring countries, as this could mean that no one can restrain Israel.

From the performance of the U.S. stock market, it doesn't seem to take this conflict seriously; instead, there is more concern about the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts. As for the statements from the Federal Reserve, they are quite ambiguous, and the likelihood of a short-term rate cut is relatively small. However, the U.S. stock market is nearing new highs, and with this support, I think there is no need to worry about systemic risks in the near term. Once the U.S. stock market reaches new highs, it will instill more confidence in the entire market, especially since the next rate cut won't be too far off.

In terms of market trends, it will maintain a volatile state in the short term. The key now is whether Bitcoin can break 110,000. From a timing perspective, the probability of breaking through is greater now, even though it has not been successful yet. In other words, it's a matter of continuing to wait. If there is a spike, we can consider making some moves based on the situation. Keep a large position for after it reaches 110,000, regarding the future appreciation of altcoins, we can only say it’s a big question mark; we will see the situation then.

Thank you for your attention.