❗️The US economy is in a stable position.
- Inflation is slightly above the target level of 2%.
- Short-term inflation risks have increased due to tariff hikes.
- Consumer sentiment has deteriorated against the backdrop of Trump's trade policy.
- Increasing tariffs may lead to rising inflation and an economic slowdown.
- The Fed's monetary policy is prepared for unforeseen circumstances.
- The labor market remains stable.
- The impact of tariffs on inflation may prove to be more persistent.
- The main task is to prevent a one-time spike in prices from turning into persistent inflation.
- The economy is experiencing extraordinarily high uncertainty.
- There have been excellent inflation reports over the past three months — this is a good sign.
❗️The Fed currently has every reason to take a pause before changing the rate.
- The consequences of the introduced tariffs are already beginning to manifest — more data is expected in the coming months.
- We cannot rely on forecasts that suggest inflation will first rise and then fall.
- In analyzing the Fed's forecasts, it is important to focus on the near horizon.
- In conditions of uncertainty, it is difficult to make reliable long-term forecasts.
- We are adjusting in real-time — everything depends on how tariffs will affect the economy.
- The peak of economic uncertainty occurred in April, and it has now decreased.
- A gradual cooling of the labor market is possible, but without signs of concern.
- Right now, no one can confidently predict the trajectory of interest rates.
❗️It is likely that the moment will soon arrive when a rate cut becomes justified.
- Although uncertainty has decreased, it remains high.
- Considering the labor market and slowing inflation, the rate should remain unchanged for now.
❗️This summer we will receive more data on the consequences of tariff policy — they are critically important for further decisions.
- A more measured decision may be possible in a couple of months — more data is needed.
- The balance of supply and demand in the labor market keeps unemployment at an acceptable level.
- The labor supply is decreasing due to immigration policy.
- Compared to September 2024, inflation expectations for this year have risen due to new tariffs.
- The current level of the Fed's monetary policy is moderately restrictive.
- Powell denied rumors: "I did not say that Americans should expect trouble in the second half of the year."
❗️Against the backdrop of a stable labor market, there is no need for a rate cut.
- Businesses are adapting to the tariffs — the situation has improved over the past three months.
- We may see higher prices for energy resources, but generally, this does not have a long-term impact on inflation.
