$BTC Many beginners who are just getting into contract trading often have this confusion: since contracts are essentially bets on price movements, shouldn't the theoretical win rate be 50%? Why do the vast majority of people end up facing liquidation? This perception actually contains two critical misconceptions:
First, contract trading is not purely a zero-sum game. The market has friction costs such as trading fees and funding rates, which continuously erode traders' capital. More importantly, price fluctuations are not entirely random; factors like market sentiment and major players' maneuvers can lead to asymmetric price movements.
Second, the so-called '50% probability' requires two nearly impossible conditions: infinite margin and infinite time. In reality, exchanges have a forced liquidation mechanism that triggers liquidation when price fluctuations exceed the margin's capacity. Even if you predict the direction correctly, you may still be washed out before dawn.
Those who can sustain profitability often grasp the following survival rules:
Strictly adhere to the single trade risk principle of 1%-3%, ensuring there is always a backup.
Establish a three-dimensional trading system (technical, capital, and sentiment) to identify high-probability opportunities.
Implement a dynamic profit-taking strategy, taking profits in batches at key resistance levels.
Maintain the art of position management with 'limited losses, running profits.'
Remember, those who survive long in this market are not necessarily the ones who seize the most opportunities, but those who understand how to avoid risks best. Just like the investor who bought BTC at $69,000 in June 2021, although they broke even three years later, 97% of leveraged traders had already disappeared into the annals of history during that time. True trading wisdom lies in exchanging time for space and discipline for opportunity.
This market changes every day; you must seize the right moment to act. If you're still too confused, feel free to follow me. I regularly share some cutting-edge information and practical strategies. You're welcome to discuss anytime and let's seize great opportunities together!
