#PowellRemarks ### 🏦 **FOMC Recap: Fed Holds Rates at 4.25–4.50%**
✔️ **97.5% Expected It** — The Fed did exactly what the market priced in: another **pause**.
🔒 **No Pivot Yet** — Only **4 of 19** Fed officials see a rate cut happening this June. Most want more time.
### 📊 **Why No Cut Yet?**
Because inflation is **still sticky**:
- **CPI**: 2.4%
- **Core CPI**: 2.8%
- **Fed Target**: 2.0%
Despite economic resilience (steady jobs + modest growth), Powell is focused on:
- 🔥 Persistent **services inflation**
- 🌍 Global **geopolitical risks**
- 🇺🇸 **Trump-era tariffs** that could resurface
Bottom line: They don’t want to ease too early and spark another inflation wave.
### 🔄 **Rate Cuts *Will* Come — Just Not Yet**
While the Fed won’t say it out loud, **China and the EU are already easing**. The U.S. can’t hold out forever.
📉 **When inflation cools below 2.4% consistently**, expect a **slow pivot** — possibly in **Q4 2025**.
### 🌐 **Crypto Outlook: Altcoins, Liquidity, and Timing**
- 🧊 **Liquidity remains tight**: No fresh money from the Fed means **low-risk appetite** in the short term.
- 🚀 **Altseason delayed, not denied**: Rate cuts = liquidity = capital flowing into risk assets (like altcoins).
- ⏳ **Smart money positioning now**: Historically, **crypto rallies front-run rate cuts** by 3–6 months.
### 📅 **Key Watchpoints Ahead:**
1. July & September FOMC — will they hint more dovishly?
2. Inflation reports — especially Core PCE
3. Global central banks — ECB & PBoC are cutting already
4. Political pressure — Trump win = more fiscal + Fed pressure
