Circle went public on June 5 at thirty-one dollars, and two weeks later it closed at 199.59. That’s a sixfold increase, which BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes called “insanely overvalued,” warning that most stablecoin IPOs would follow the same path and collapse. Maybe he’s right, but Circle didn’t move like a speculative asset, it moved like something already positioned, not discovered, just switched on.
Circle had been building toward this moment for years, not only in the United States but in parallel with MiCA across Europe, offering full reserve structure, transparent reporting, and yield drawn from short-term Treasuries rather than synthetic on-chain models. It wasn’t a vehicle for hype, it was a container for permission.
On June 18, the Senate passed the GENIUS Act with bipartisan support, providing a formal legal definition for payment stablecoins, requiring collateral in cash or Treasuries, monthly public reserve disclosures, and regulated issuers. Circle didn’t have to adapt or pivot, it was already aligned, not just in theory but in form. The law didn’t open a path, it simply confirmed which entities were already on it.
Then the market adjusted. Coinbase rose sixteen percent, Robinhood added four and a half, Trump posted that the bill should be delivered to his desk without delay, and analysts started branding the moment as “Stablecoin Summer.” Traders quickly pointed out that Coinbase earns roughly half the USDC revenue generated by Circle, while also benefiting from a direct equity stake. By the time the headlines arrived, the positioning was already priced in.
Still, nothing fundamental shifted that week. The vote didn’t ignite momentum, it just illuminated what had been in place. Most of the sector had been waiting for the next cycle, hoping for conditions to change, while Circle had already completed the work required to make regulatory clarity a tailwind instead of a barrier.
So when people ask whether this was real investor demand or just short-term hype, the question misreads what actually moved. There was no wave of belief or narrative acceleration, only capital reallocating into a structure that had already been deemed acceptable. Not excitement, not euphoria, just eligibility.
As for who might be next, it won’t come down to tokenomics or community size, but to structure, disclosure, and readiness to be absorbed. Kraken might have a path, Fireblocks possibly too if they stay quiet. The rest will have to decide whether they’re ready to fit the format or stay outside it entirely.
Circle didn’t win because it anticipated the market. It won because it already met the conditions.
