The June 18 FOMC outcome is slightly hawkish.
The rate hold itself was neutral and fully expected, but the updated projections tipped the scale. Back in March, the median forecast suggested two cuts in 2025. Now it's just one. Most officials expect rates to stay at current levels well into next year, with very few seeing any easing before 2026. That’s a signal of tighter policy for longer.
So while the tone was measured and Powell didn’t spook markets, the underlying message is clear: inflation isn’t low enough yet, and the Fed isn’t ready to loosen. Markets hoping for a more dovish tilt got confirmation that patience will be needed.