1. Price dynamics: volatility intensifies, focus on key support/resistance levels.

As of today at 12 PM (UTC+8), Ethereum (ETH) is quoted at approximately $2,470 (data source: CoinGecko), with a 24-hour change of -0.8% and a trading volume of approximately $2.45 billion.

Short-term trend:

During the morning session, ETH briefly rebounded to $2,546 but fell back to the $2,460-$2,470 range due to Bitcoin (BTC) pullback and market risk aversion.

Key support: $2,450 (4-hour EMA30 moving average support); if broken, it may test the $2,380-$2,400 area.

Upper resistance: $2,550-$2,600 (recent strong resistance range); if broken, it may test $2,700.

2. Technical analysis: fierce tug-of-war between bulls and bears, with differentiated patterns.

K-line pattern:

The daily line has closed with long upper and lower shadow doji stars for three consecutive days, indicating a balance of power between bulls and bears.

The 4-hour level has formed a 'head and shoulders' pattern; if it breaks below the $2,450 neckline, it may accelerate downward.

Indicator signals:

MACD: The 4-hour level green bars are shortening, and DIF and DEA are flattening below the zero axis; the daily level death cross continues, with bears in control.

RSI: currently around 45, neutral to weak, with no oversold signals.

3. On-chain data: coexistence of whale accumulation and retail selling.

Position changes:

The wallet addresses holding 1,000-10,000 ETH have recently increased their net holdings by over 818,000 coins (approximately $2.5 billion), reaching a six-year high, indicating that whales are accumulating at lower prices.

Retail holdings (10-100 ETH) saw a net outflow of about $32 million in 24 hours, indicating significant short-term selling pressure.

Funding rate:

The perpetual contract funding rate remains at -0.01%, indicating that shorts have a slight advantage but the market is not in excessive panic.

4. Market sentiment and external driving factors

Sentiment indicator:

The Fear and Greed Index (Crypto Fear & Greed Index) is currently at 38 ('Fear' zone), down 5 points from the previous day, indicating that investors are cautious about a short-term pullback.

Core driving events:

Federal Reserve FOMC meeting (to be announced later today): If hawkish signals are released (such as delaying interest rate cuts), it may suppress the rebound space for risk assets.

Ethereum ecosystem progress: Pectra hard fork testnet is progressing smoothly; if implemented, it will enhance Layer-2 scalability, which is beneficial for ETH in the long term.

5. Operational strategy reference

Conservative strategy: mainly wait and see, monitor the effectiveness of the $2,450 support; if stabilized, consider a small long position with a stop loss at $2,400.

Aggressive strategy: establish short positions in the $2,530-$2,550 range, with a stop loss at $2,580 and a target of $2,450-$2,400.

Risk warning: geopolitical conflicts (Middle East situation) and regulatory policies (such as U.S. SEC movements) may exacerbate volatility.

Summary: Ethereum is currently under technical resistance and macroeconomic event pressure in the short term, with a key support level at $2,450 to watch. A drop below this level could lead to further corrections; in the medium to long term, it depends on Layer-2 scaling and ecosystem progress. Investors are advised to manage their positions carefully and avoid high leverage operations.