#PowellRemarks

🏛️ Key Highlights

Interest rates held steady at 4.25%–4.50%. The FOMC refrained from cuts, assessing that current conditions justify patience .

Projected path: The Fed continues to forecast two quarter-point rate cuts in 2025, though internal confidence in that outlook has softened—some officials now see only one or none .

Tariff-driven inflation: Powell emphasized that recent tariff increases are expected to inject inflationary pressure. He warned that while the effect might be mostly one-time, persistent impacts cannot be ruled out .

Economic assessment: The economy remains sturdy—with GDP growth at ~2.5%, unemployment at 4.2%, real wages rising, and consumer demand solid. However, trade-related uncertainties continue to weigh on sentiment .

Dot‑plot caution: Powell stressed that the dot-plot is not a firm commitment but merely a conditional projection. He famously quipped, “No one holds these rate paths with a great deal of conviction” .