Ark Invest, which has always focused on startup investments, has issued a valuation report on Musk's SpaceX, predicting that by 2030, SpaceX's enterprise value target will reach $2.5 trillion, about 7 times higher than the last round of financing in December 2024. This prediction is based on a Monte Carlo model that includes 17 variables, including the potential for Mars colonization, with valuations in bear and bull markets being approximately $1.7 trillion and $3.1 trillion, respectively.
SpaceX is gradually moving from satellite networks to Mars development.
SpaceX starts with cash, manufacturing rockets and satellites, creating orbital bandwidth, acquiring Starlink customers, and reinvesting the cash earned. This cycle continues until the global satellite network project (Starlink Constellation) is ultimately completed.
Starlink Constellation is a global satellite network project led by SpaceX, aimed at providing high-speed, low-latency internet services worldwide through thousands of low Earth orbit (LEO) satellites, especially in remote areas or places where traditional networks are difficult to cover. Ultimately, a whole group of satellites operating in synergy will form, hence the name Starlink Constellation.
After the Starlink Constellation takes shape, funds can gradually flow towards Mars development, with each rocket heading to Mars eventually carrying humanoid robots (Optimus) and related materials, moving gradually towards the dream of Mars colonization.
Once the satellite network is completed, it will generate $300 billion in revenue each year.
Ark estimates that SpaceX could complete the full deployment of the Starlink Constellation by 2035, generating about $300 billion in revenue each year, accounting for 15% of total global communications spending.
As the reusability of the Starship increases, the share of satellites in total marginal costs is expected to rise from about 30% to about 90% over time.
Ark expects that the number of various Mars-adaptive Optimus robots will grow to millions over time, building an infrastructure to support a permanent colony, with productivity increasing over time. However, in the early stages, the Mars program is still unlikely to make a significant contribution to SpaceX's book value.
By 2030, Ark's enterprise value target for SpaceX is about $2.5 trillion, which is approximately 7 times higher than the last round of financing in December 2024. The valuations in bear and bull markets are approximately $1.7 trillion and $3.1 trillion, respectively.
Compared to Ark's estimates, Musk claimed in early June on X that SpaceX's revenue forecast for 2025 is $15.5 billion. One can only say that Ark, which is adept at making bold claims, continues to speak astonishingly!
How should investors invest in SpaceX?
According to previous reports, SpaceX and its investors reached an internal stock sale of $1.25 billion at the end of last year, which boosted Musk's rocket and satellite manufacturer's valuation to $350 billion. Since SpaceX is privately held, it is currently not publicly traded, and investors can only indirectly hold shares in SpaceX by buying funds like Baron Focused Growth Fund (BFGFX), Destiny Tech100 (DXYZ), or Ark's ARK Venture Fund (ARKVX).
Among them, DXYZ holds 52% of shares in SpaceX, which has risen 215% over the past year, but its stock price has performed poorly this year, possibly due to Musk's recent political turmoil.
(Did Musk hint that his company will IPO? Bloomberg teaches you how to buy SpaceX)
Most investors who cannot buy SpaceX can only angrily buy Tesla (TSLA), the only publicly listed company under Musk! However, the two do not have cross-holdings and operate as independent companies.
This article analyzes SpaceX's grand ambitions by Ark, predicting a sevenfold increase in valuation by 2030, first appearing in Chain News ABMedia.