As of June 2025, Bitcoin is firmly in a bull phase. Price recently dipped to about $101K and then quickly recovered near $110K, holding well above the $100K support level. Key on-chain and macro indicators are pointing upward. For example, the Coinbase Premium Index – the price gap between Coinbase (USD) and Binance (USDT) – has been positive throughout June 2025. A sustained Coinbase premium signals strong U.S. spot demand, a bullish sign for BTC. In short, U.S. buyers remain active, and confidence appears high as Bitcoin trades near new highs.
The Coinbase Premium Index (green bars) has stayed positive in June 2025, showing steady U.S. buying pressure. cointelegraph.com
Key On-Chain & Market Indicators
Exchange Outflows = Bullish. Recent data shows large net BTC withdrawals from exchanges. Over the past month exchanges saw net outflows averaging ~72K BTC/day, while Bitcoin’s price climbed +4.4%. Glassnode/AMINA Bank analysis finds a strong negative correlation (~–0.605) between exchange flows and price: when coins flow off exchanges (green bars below zero in the chart below), prices tend to rise. In other words, steady withdrawals (reduced selling supply) have historically preceded upward moves.
Flow vs Price Correlation. The scatterplot below highlights this inverse relationship. Each point represents a day’s net exchange flow vs. price. The downward trendline (r ≈ –0.605) confirms that larger outflows (left side) generally align with higher prices. This means that recent heavy outflows are a bullish signal.
Long-Term Holders (LTHs): Long-term holders have taken some profits but remain net accumulators. Glassnode reports LTHs realized about $0.93B per day at the peak of the rally, and even $1.47B/day during the latest ATH run. These profit-taking levels, while significant, are below 2021 extremes, implying seasoned investors are not liquidating en masse. In fact, despite recent sell-offs, most LTHs hold on, showing confidence. Realized gain metrics are elevated but not sky-high, and loss-taking has been minor.
Valuation Metrics: Key ratios still look healthy. The MVRV Z-score (market cap divided by realized cap) is in a “healthy” range, indicating Bitcoin is not overvalued. Amberdata notes that Bitcoin’s MVRV fell from ~2.27 in Feb 2025 to 1.75 by Aprilblog.amberdata.io. A lower MVRV (1.75) is closer to fair value (realized cap), suggesting more upside room. Likewise, on-chain models (Spent Supply Distribution) place important support at ~$103.7K (95th percentile of cost) and $95.6K (85th percentile). As long as BTC stays above the short-term holder break-even ($98K), the trend remains up.
Macro Tailwinds: US economic data has cooperated with the bullish case. May 2025 CPI inflation came in at just +0.1% MoM, easing pressure for aggressive Fed hikes. Softer inflation has boosted risk assets; for example, Bitcoin spiked briefly past $110K after the report. Inflows into crypto funds are surging: CoinShares reports a $1.3B inflow into Bitcoin funds in mid-June (part of a record nine straight weeks of net inflows, totaling ~$13.2B YTD). This flood of fresh capital, especially from U.S. investors, underpins the bullish outlook.
Investor Sentiment: Greed is on the rise. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index is around 70 (“Greed”), reflecting an optimistic market mood. Even prominent analysts expect continued gains: many forecasts at year-end 2025 put Bitcoin’s peak between $180K and $250K. On-chain analyst Willy Woo notes on-chain “risk signals” are still bullish (buy-side liquidity dominates). And macro thinkers point out ~$7 trillion sitting in money-market funds that could eventually flow into hard assets like Bitcoin, foreshadowing large-scale demand ahead.
Short‑Term Caution: No market is without risks. Technical are somewhat stretched – the RSI entered overbought territory in mid-May – and large whales have taken profit (~30K BTC moved on May 13–15). This helped trigger the brief retracement to $101K. If Bitcoin dips below the $95–98K zone, a deeper pullback could follow. However, current on-chain evidence suggests the dip was mostly healthy consolidation, not panic selling. The key support band between $95K–$103K has proven sticky, and as long as it holds, the path remains upward.
Price Projections
End of June 2025: Most signals point to a resumption of the rally. Analysts at Cointelegraph note that under current conditions Bitcoin could achieve an ~18–25% rally in 6–8 weeks, which works out to roughly $130K by late June. In practice, if BTC holds above the ~$102–104K short-term bottom and clears immediate resistance around $106–107K, we could see prices climbing toward $115–120K, and possibly $130K by month-end. Glassnode’s models agree that reclaiming $106–107K is the key bullish trigger, while maintaining support at ~$103K. Barring a surprise, I consider $130K by end‑Q2 a reasonable target.
Q3 2025: If momentum carries into July–September, Bitcoin may push well above $130K. The same factors that drive Q2 gains (ETF inflows, on-chain demand, macro easing) will linger, and summer historically sees quieter news flow, which could allow the price to run. My base-case forecast is continued gains in Q3; I wouldn’t be surprised to see $150K+ as new resistance comes into play. Many institutional models envision a peak later in 2025 – VanEck, Fundstrat and others have eyed $180–250K as a bull-top. Even if that proves optimistic, mid-$100K to low-$200K by year-end is well within analysts’ expectations.
End of 2025: Looking ahead to year-end, the long-term drivers are all positive. The halving-induced supply shock is in effect, institutional and corporate adoption continues, and global liquidity concerns persist. If the current bull market endures, Bitcoin could easily more than double from today’s levels. As one source summarizes, factors like massive cash reserves (~$7T) and rising macro uncertainty all point to a bullish final 2025. Even if we adopt a cautious stance, $150–200K by late 2025 seems likely under a bullish or neutral thesis (and flat-to-bearish scenarios are becoming harder to justify).
Key Takeaways
US Spot Demand Remains High: Coinbase Premium has been firmly positive this month, indicating robust buying pressure on U.S. exchanges.
Exchange Outflows = Bullish Signal: Large net withdrawals (~72K BTC/day) from exchanges have coincided with rising price. A strong negative flow-price correlation (–0.605) means outflows tend to precede rallies.
Healthy Holder Behavior: Long-term holders took normal profits ($0.93B–$1.47B/day) during the recent ATH rush, but they remain largely holders, not dumpers. Short-term holders’ break-even ($98K) is well below current price, keeping bullish momentum intact.
Valuation Gauges are Bullish: MVRV/Z-score and other on-chain metrics show Bitcoin is not overheated. Glassnode’s models point to major support around $95–103K and resistance ~$114–115K.
Macro and Flows Support an Uptrend: Cooling US inflation (May CPI +0.1%) eases Fed pressures. Meanwhile, crypto fund inflows are at record levels (CoinShares: US$1.3B into BTC last week). Liquidity is high and patience is thin for missed opportunities – $7T in idle cash could eventually flood into Bitcoin.
Projected Targets: With these bullish underpinnings, ~20–25% gains by late June (around $130K) look plausible. If momentum holds, Bitcoin may reach mid-$100K in Q3, with year-end targets in the $150K–200K+ range consistent with many forecasts.
Conclusion: All signs point to a continuation of Bitcoin’s bull run. On-chain data (flows, HODLer behavior, valuation metrics) and macro catalysts (ETF inflows, easing inflation) are aligned with higher prices. While short-term pullbacks are possible, the medium-term bias is strongly positive. As a macro analyst, my base-case outlook for end‑2025 is bullish: barring unforeseen shocks, I expect Bitcoin to trade well above today’s levels, likely in the upper five figures or beyond. In practical terms, that means continuing higher in Q3 and into Q4, with $180K+ achievable if the momentum persists.