📢【Summary of Powell's Speech Tonight】A bit unexpectedly hawkish! 💥#鲍威尔发言
Tonight Powell's speech was unexpectedly hawkish, as the market was originally expecting some signs of 'easing', but instead he not only didn't provide that but became even more hardline:
📌 Main Points:
1️⃣ Inflation pressures remain, tariff impacts still need to be observed
Powell specifically mentioned that tariffs are a key variable in inflation, but the transmission of their effects is slow, and it still needs to be seen whether businesses will absorb them or pass them on to consumers.
2️⃣ High interest rates remain, and may even last longer
He clearly stated that maintaining high interest rates to combat inflation is a better choice, and the timeframe may be extended.
3️⃣ Current economic stability, healthy employment
He does not believe there is a recession risk in the U.S., and the current economic resilience is acceptable.
4️⃣ Not too worried about rising prices in the Middle East and energy
Powell actually did not react much to the situation in the Middle East, believing that the rise in energy prices poses limited threats to inflation.
5️⃣ The Fed has 'ammunition', but won't act lightly
He stated that the current interest rates give the Fed more operational space, and if something does happen, they can respond quickly.
6️⃣ QT (Quantitative Tightening) will continue to progress as planned
7️⃣ Tariff policy subtly criticizes Trump? But the wording is very roundabout
Although he expressed clear concerns about tariffs, he also said, 'The Fed and Trump have the same goal – prioritizing the U.S. economy.'
8️⃣ Consumer data becomes the next focus
Powell believes that as long as consumer spending does not significantly decline, the overall economy will not run into problems.
🧠 The core logic remains unchanged:
High inflation > Good employment, and since employment is okay now, we can continue to withstand high interest rates and not let inflation stick.
❓ So why didn’t the market drop?
Because just as Powell was speaking, Trump was also giving a speech, talking again about the Iran issue, and the market suddenly began to worry about geopolitical issues, with part of the attention being 'diverted', and risk sentiment temporarily stabilized.
✅ One-sentence summary:
Powell's tone is more hawkish, inflation concerns have escalated, and high interest rates must continue to hold! But the market didn't drop much, all due to Trump's interjection causing a stir + sudden developments in the Middle East, complicating the market trends.