Little Chicken's Share Today 😊
After the large fluctuations over the weekend, AVAX has seen some panic selling over three consecutive trading days this week, followed by a period of consolidation. The entire market seems quite complex, especially after yesterday's U.S. market, where it has likely entered a range of consolidation or a wide downward channel 🤔
Whether looking at the 15-minute chart or the 1-hour chart, the breakthroughs of previous lows are not decisive, so it can be expected that this will develop into a relatively large range of consolidation. However, the bears remain strong, with no significant high points breached, so the probability is actually leaning towards the bears ⚠️
Originally, it should have been a better chance to look for short opportunities, but there are some reasons to believe that shorting may not be a good choice. Firstly, if the wide channel is valid, it is currently at the bottom of this channel, near previous lows, with these two visible supports. The possibility of a reversal reaching the other side of the channel is higher than the possibility of a downward breakout. Secondly, there is too much hesitation in breaking previous highs. In this case, the potential upward movement of previous limit orders for bulls is about 3%, which could allow some bulls to make a lot of money. This also means that the likelihood of this position becoming a range of consolidation is gradually increasing 📈
The probability advantage of bears may not lead to a favorable risk-reward ratio, so in this case, directly shorting is not the best choice 🙅
In summary, if one must short at this point, scalping can be chosen, and then wait for strong bullish signals to go long, with the expectation of reaching near the upper edge of the channel. One can also place limit orders at the lower edge of the channel, with a small position added on dips, watching for consolidation, and hoping that the bears fail to break down. Personally, I prefer to wait for bullish signals, as this will increase the probability of a successful long position 💰
Finally, I wish everyone prosperity 🤑
